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FinalOracle Park
Twins74-84
4-2
Giants65-93
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIN0010102004
SF0002000002

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Francisco Giants under 3.5 runs scored 54¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: SF's confirmed lineup has a .2905 team xwOBA versus left-handed pitching over 1,230 PA; Cesar Perdomo and Connor Prielipp are both left-handed.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-8 on this game · +34% return

  1. Connor Prielipp over 15.5 outs recorded2 models agree
    +120%Won

    Taken at +120 on BetMGM

    2 modelsBello, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Bello
    • market mismatch: +120 on 15.5 outs; 14.5 is −192 at FanDuel/DraftKings.
    • Prielipp cleared 15 outs in 17 of 21 starts; 2026 average is 15.9 outs.
    • Full-season 16+ rate is 11/21; the edge is sample-dependent despite the recent 3-for-3 run.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 6 of Prielipp's last 10 appearances cleared 15.5 outs; 3 of his last 5 did.
    • His last-five workload averages 5.73 innings and 87.4 pitches; 15.5 outs requires only 5.33 innings.
    • Two of his last five appearances were not officially scored as starts, creating some role uncertainty.
  2. Cesar Perdomo under 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Perdomo's last three starts produced 1, 3, and 4 Ks on 83, 74, and 83 pitches.
    • Five days' rest is normal, but the under is priced at −122 against a short 3.5 line.
    • A four-strikeout outing loses; Perdomo reached four Ks in each of his prior two starts.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 3.0 Ks/start across four 2026 starts, 14.3% below the 3.5 line.
    • Recent starts produced 1, 3, 4, 4 strikeouts; only two cleared four.
    • Perdomo reached four strikeouts in two of four starts, so one extra K loses.
  3. Minnesota Twins F5 winner (first 5 innings)High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gone-by-Six fires away: home Cesar Perdomo's L5 WHIP is 1.63, versus Connor Prielipp's 1.33.
    • Top-three lineup read favors Minnesota: versus LHP, MIN averages .318 xwOBA/17.7% K versus SF's .296/.280.
    • Perdomo's 4.11 L5 ERA is better than Prielipp's 6.28, so the WHIP/xwOBA read could be misleading.
  4. Game total over 8.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Twins moneyline anchor is 67¢; the full-game 6.5 over anchor is 49¢ at 1:17 PM.
    • 2026 MLB finals average 8.97 runs, median 8, and 75th percentile 12 confirm a right-skewed scoring tail.
    • Shifting that empirical shape to the 6.5 anchor estimates roughly 33% for 9+ runs versus the venue's 26.5¢.
    • The live score is only 1-0 through the bottom of the third; eight more runs require a volatile six-inning finish.
  5. No 6th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors imply roughly 8.6, 8.8 runs: 54¢ over 7.5 plus the right-skewed MLB scoring shape.
    • The F5 anchor is 59¢ over 3.5, leaving about 4 runs across innings 6, 9, roughly 1 run per inning.
    • This is venue self-reference: the fitted anchors and target all come from Polymarket US, with no independent inning-six sharp line.
  6. San Francisco Giants under 3.5 runs scored
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • SF's confirmed lineup has a .2905 team xwOBA versus left-handed pitching over 1,230 PA; Cesar Perdomo and Connor Prielipp are both left-handed.
    • Prielipp's expected line is .308 xwOBA allowed, 4.01 xERA, and 1.33 L5 WHIP; Perdomo's small-sample profile is weaker but SF still needs four runs.
    • Oracle Park's run factor is 90; weather is 68°F with 2-mph wind, limiting the case for an unusually high SF scoring environment.
    • Perdomo has only 19.1 season innings and no current xERA, so the starter-quality estimate is noisy.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Minnesota Twins first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair win probability 61% (fair price 61¢, approximately −156).
    • Connor Prielipp: 4.01 xERA, .308 xwOBA allowed, 9.35 K/9 across 120.3 innings.
    • Posted Twins top five average 112.9 wRC+ and .324 xwOBA versus San Francisco's 93.6 wRC+ and .315 xwOBA.
    • Prielipp has only four quality starts and averaged roughly six innings, so command volatility can decide five innings quickly.
  2. Under 8 totalHigh conviction
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 7.7 expected runs; Under-8 probability 55% from run rates, starters, park, and weather.
    • SF is −82 and MIN −66 in current-season run differential; Oracle Park carries a 90 run factor.
    • SF and MIN bullpens logged 155 and 141 pitches over three days; fatigue can create late runs.
  3. Minnesota Twins to win
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 62%; devigged Pinnacle fair is 59%: a 3.0-point gap.
    • Twins fair price moved 57.2% opening to 59% current, +1.8 points toward the model side and still below 62%.
    • San Francisco has home field; both offenses are modest against left-handed pitching by xwOBA (.3027 Minnesota, .2954 San Francisco).
  4. Game total under 8.0 runs
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.9 total runs; fair total line 6.9; Under 8 win probability 59.8%; push probability 11.5% (inputs locked 2:10 PM CDT; price checked 2:16 PM CDT).
    • Oracle Park carries a 90 runs factor; 68°F, 6-mph wind, and an open roof provide a low-scoring environment.
    • Connor Prielipp brings a 3.75 FIP, 9.35 K/9, and .308 xwOBA allowed against San Francisco's lefty-starter matchup.
    • Cesar Perdomo's 4.96 FIP and .338 xwOBA allowed leave Minnesota's offense capable of supplying most of the over by itself.
  5. Cesar Perdomo 4+ strikeouts: No
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota's confirmed lineup owns a 19.2% K rate versus left-handers (173 Ks in 903 PA).
    • Perdomo's season K/9 is 5.59; L3/L5 K/9 are both 4.70, with last four starts producing 4, 4, 3, 1 Ks.
    • Last-four pitch counts were 83, 74, 83, 58; the 4+ NO rung is insulated against another short outing.
    • Only four 2026 starts make the workload and recent-form sample thin; 5.0 projected innings is an estimate.
  6. Cesar Perdomo 3+ strikeouts: No
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Mr. StrikeoutsUp 11% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Perdomo's 2026 L3 K/9 is 4.70; 80.0 L3 pitches/start imply roughly 5.0 IP and 2.6 projected Ks.
    • Perdomo has only 19.33 season innings; the sample is thin and his last four K totals were 1, 3, 4, 4.
  7. Full-game total under 8
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated cash probability 56% for 7 or fewer runs; fair total 7.3 versus the posted 8.
    • Oracle Park suppresses scoring: 90 run factor and 79 home-run factor; 68°F, 6-mph variable wind.
    • Both confirmed lineups face left-handed starters with modest season xwOBA splits: Minnesota .303, San Francisco .295.
    • Perdomo has only 19.3 innings this season, a 1.50 WHIP and .338 xwOBA allowed; regression can lift Minnesota's scoring.
  8. Minnesota Twins game total under 8.5 runs
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  9. Minnesota Twins under 8 total runs (8 pushes/refunds)
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 8 pushes/refunds at exactly 8 runs; it loses only at 9 or more.
    • Pinnacle also posted under 8, at −110; ProphetX offers the better −105 quote.
    • Under 8 loses on 9+ runs; exactly 8 is a refund, not a win, so the option has no profit on the push outcome.
  10. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sportsbook total moved from 7.5 to 8, while over probability rose from roughly 52% to 53.7%; directional coherence supports the over.
    • Connor Prielipp carries a 4.94 season ERA; Cesar Perdomo has a 1.50 WHIP, leaving room for traffic and scoring.
    • Both bullpens logged 6 appearances in three days; recent workload is 110 pitches for Minnesota and 106 for San Francisco.
    • Prielipp's latest start was 7 IP, 0 ER, and Perdomo's prior start was 6 IP, 0 ER; efficient outings can strand this total.
  11. Andrew Knizner over 0.5 hits
    +67%Won

    Taken at −149 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed active and batting fifth for San Francisco in the 9:40 AM PDT pregame roster.
    • Knizner recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 appearances, totaling 9 hits in 28 at-bats.
    • Cesar Perdomo is a left-hander who has allowed 22 hits in 83 batters faced (0.27 H/BF).
    • Knizner is only 7-for-40 (.175) against left-handed pitching this season.
  12. San Francisco Giants to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Prielipp's latest fastball averaged 94.45 mph versus 95.37 season baseline; recent velocity drift flags vulnerability.
    • Prielipp's profile shows 6.28 L5 ERA versus 4.94 season ERA and 8.48 L5 K/9 versus 9.35 season.
    • SF's posted lineup has a .324 xwOBA versus left-handers; Giants' bullpen used only 29 pitches over the last three days.
    • Prielipp's latest 31.2% CSW was not down, so the velocity signal may be noise.
  13. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • posted top-six lineups enable an RFI-specific scoreless-rate estimate.
    • Prielipp's first-inning profile: .2099 BA allowed, 4 HR in 21 games/92 PA; Perdomo allows .250 BA with 1 HR in 3/14 PA.
    • Full-game 7.5, 8 is NOT a valid RFI reference; it includes later lineup turns, starter fatigue, and bullpen innings.
    • Perdomo's first-inning sample is only 3 games/14 PA, so his true rate is highly uncertain.
  14. Game total runs under 6.5
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage: one scheduled game, three ProphetX game-board families inspected; board pull as_of_pt 2026-09-23 10:17:31 PDT.
    • LEAN only. Moneyline flow is 2.3x and run-line flow is 1.6x; those boards do not independently clear the 3x threshold.
  15. Minnesota Twins F5 to win (first 5 innings)High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Prielipp L5: 1.33 WHIP, 5.73 IP/start, 8.48 K/9; Perdomo: 1.63 WHIP, 5.11 IP/start, 4.70 K/9.
    • Perdomo's L5 ERA is 4.11 versus Prielipp's 6.28; Prielipp's poor run prevention can erase the WHIP/K advantage.

Questions

Who won Twins vs. Giants?

The Twins won 4-2 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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