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FinalGlobe Life Field
Mets72-85
7-2
Rangers78-79
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYM0020000147
TEX0000200002

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Mets to win −108

Why Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant likes it: 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 11,860/20,000 Mets wins (59.3%); raw fair −145, conservative fair −126; medium confidence; McLean/bullpen edge; Bradford, home field, and extra innings are key risks; model locked 6:35 PM CDT.

Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantDown 6% this season · 237 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 22-9 on this game · +60% return

  1. New York Mets to win10 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    10 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Brewing MLB Ml +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 11,860/20,000 Mets wins (59.3%); raw fair −145, conservative fair −126; medium confidence; McLean/bullpen edge; Bradford, home field, and extra innings are key risks; model locked 6:35 PM CDT.
    • Nolan McLean: 3.18 ERA, 9.85 K/9, 105.1 pitching-plus; Cody Bradford: 4.19 ERA, 4.66 K/9, 92.95 pitching-plus.
    • McLean allowed 5 runs and 3 walks in five innings on September 11; command regression can erase the starting-pitcher edge.
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • McLean: 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.85 K/9; Bradford: 4.19, 1.50, 4.66; L5 ERA 2.40 vs 5.87.
    • Mets vs LHP xwOBA .3246 versus Texas vs RHP .3149; both posted starting lineups are confirmed.
    • Texas is home and enters 78-79 versus the Mets’ 72-85; home field and season baseline oppose the pick.
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Nolan McLean: 3.18 ERA and 9.85 K/9; last-five ERA 2.40 across 30 innings.
    • Cody Bradford: 4.19 ERA and 5.87 last-five ERA, with a 1.50 WHIP in the dossier.
    • Texas is 44-35 at home and has the better season record and last-10 mark: 78-79 overall, 6-4 recently.
    Parity Desk
    • Partial ledger: Rangers xW OBA versus right-handers is .3071, scored −0.40 runs after the Partial cap; Mets 0.00, bullpen 0.00 (TEX 4.0 IP and NYM 3.0 IP over 3 days; neither B2B).
    • Bradford's incomplete saber sample leaves the model dependent on a Partial-coverage read.
  2. Nolan McLean over 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on BetMGM

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected mean about 7.0 strikeouts, roughly 1.5 above the 5.5 line.
    • The matchup fit adds 2.99 percentage points to McLean's K rate; Barrett's pitcher fit is +0.00 with 31 games sampled.
    • His last five starts produced only 27 strikeouts in 128 batters faced, a 21.1% recent rate below baseline.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • McLean has 17 strikeouts in his last three starts, with a 9.0 K/9 and 82, 101, and 105 pitches.
    • Season workload averages 6.30 strikeouts per start (189 K in 30 starts); the 5.5 line is playable at −118.
    • McLean recorded exactly 5 strikeouts in two of his last three starts; one lost punchout misses.
  3. Game total over 7.5
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live anchors are coherent: moneyline is 50/50 and the 6.5 total is 49.5c over.
    • Calibrating the empirical right-skewed tail to the live 6.5 anchor gives about 41.4% for over 7.5.
    • The 7.5 rung is the largest total-ladder gap: 33c versus roughly 41.4% fitted probability; both sides are quoted.
    • The game is already live at 0-0 in the top of the third; the tail calibration is not an inning-specific run model.
  4. No 8th-inning draw
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline is essentially even while the 7.5-run total implies a modest, coherent scoring environment.
    • Historical MLB sample: 11,204 games averaged 9.11 runs; median 9, with a right-skewed 6-run interquartile span.
    • Anchors fit roughly 7.8 runs: about 0.87 per inning, with late bullpen fatigue lowering eighth-inning tie probability toward 46, 48%.
    • Both clubs could deploy their best relievers, raising the tie probability above the late-inning adjustment.
  5. Texas Rangers under 4.5 runs scored
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi prices Texas over 4.5 at a 37.5% midpoint; the opposing RHP Nolan McLean allows a .2921 xwOBA and owns a .3216 CSW rate.
    • The confirmed Texas lineup has a .3149 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; McLean is confirmed right-handed, so the split is directionally aligned.
    • McLean's latest rolling-start row shows 6.0 IP and 1.37 WHIP over the recent window, supporting starter length against the Rangers.
    • Texas can score late against its own taxed bullpen: the Rangers have 4.0 relief innings and 91 pitches over the last three days.
  6. First-inning runs under 0.5
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on FanDuel

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: T1 xRuns 0.34, B1 xRuns 0.27; total 0.61 implies 54.3% NRFI and fair −119.
    • Confirmed 1-9 lineups, roof closed at 74°F, 100 run park factor and 94 HR factor reduce pregame uncertainty.
    • Bradford’s first-inning sample is only 7 games and 30 plate appearances; McLean’s is 30 games and 129 PA.
Show all 22 picks
  1. New York Mets 8th-inning winnerLong shot
    +456%Won

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Inning 8 is the clearest late mismatch: it prices Texas 23% and New York 18%, then inning 9 abruptly flips to New York 24% versus Texas 15%.
    • Texas used 4.0 innings, 91 pitches and four arms over three days; New York used 3.0 innings, 44 pitches and three arms.
    • McLean averages 5.76 IP/start versus Bradford's 4.91, placing inning 8 firmly in the bullpen regime where the Rangers carry the heavier recent workload.
    • Game state may dictate lower-leverage arms, and the Mets could be protecting a lead rather than attacking the inning.
  2. New York Mets @ Texas Rangers game total over 7.5 runs
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected total runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 56.2%; push probability 0%; release 6:35 PM CDT.
    • Cody Bradford: 4.19 ERA, 5.26 xFIP, .3446 xwOBA allowed, and 5.87 ERA over his last five starts.
    • New York's 2026 split versus left-handed pitching: .3205 xwOBA and .3957 SLG; the posted lineup is locked 1, 9.
    • Nolan McLean owns a 3.70 xERA and 3.65 FIP, giving Texas a credible run-suppression path.
  3. Cody Bradford under 2.5 strikeouts
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 K rate is 11.8% across 169 batters faced; last five appearances are 9.6% across 104.
    • Bradford averages 4.6 innings and 20.8 batters faced over his last five starts/appearances.
    • Whiff generation converges low: 17.4% overall whiff, 27.6% CSW, 16.9% fastball whiff, 20.2% changeup whiff.
    • The left-handed split clears the gate at 62 PA but remains close to the 50-PA minimum.
  4. Nolan McLean 6+ strikeouts: No
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • McLean has two put-away weapons: slider 40% whiff and curveball 37.3%; TTO3 K rate is 25.2%, not decaying.
    • 4+ and 5+ NO fail the one-K separation test; Kalshi 6+ NO beats the sportsbook under-5.5 price of +102.
    • McLean's 9.85 season K/9 and 6+ Ks in two of his last five starts can overwhelm the under.
  5. New York Mets first-five spread −0.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cody Bradford's last three starts: 13.67 IP, 249 pitches, 18.22 P/IP; 7.24 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.
    • Nolan McLean's last three: 17.0 IP, 288 pitches, 16.94 P/IP; velocity +0.25 mph and spin +46 rpm.
    • Posted lineups confirm both sides; Mets' 2026 xwOBA versus lefties is .3163 versus Texas's .3071 versus righties.
    • Bradford's velocity delta is −0.01 mph and spin delta −1 rpm; stable stuff means high P/IP is sequencing noise, not verified decay.
  6. New York Mets-Texas Rangers total under 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60% modeled cash probability for 0-7 runs; exactly 8 pushes.
    • Independent fair total 7.3, providing a 0.7-run cushion below the posted 8.
    • McLean owns a 3.7 xERA, 2.40 L5 ERA and 6.0 L5 innings; Texas is at .309 xwOBA versus lefties.
    • Bradford carries a 4.26 xERA, .345 xwOBA against and only 4.6 L5 innings, creating early-hook risk.
  7. Full-game total under 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 6.96 total runs; fair total is approximately 7.0 versus a 7.5, 8.0 market.
    • Globe Life Field profiles at 83 run factor and 80 home-run factor in the game features.
    • Roof closed at 74°F with zero wind: no wind-out boost to Bradford’s 45.5% fly-ball rate.
    • Bradford’s 1.50 WHIP can create an early crooked inning despite the park suppression.
  8. New York Mets run line −1 (push if New York wins by exactly 1)
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • the exact contract is Mets −1; a one-run Mets win refunds, while a win by 2+ wins and a loss loses.
    • The adjacent ProphetX −1.5 quote is venue self-reference, not an independent sharp price.
  9. Bo Bichette over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −268 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bo recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, totaling 10 hits.
    • Model hit probability is 80%; DraftKings' raw −268 price implies 72.8%, clearing the 4-point gate.
    • Bichette is confirmed batting third and active; DraftKings moved his over from −258 to −268 before first pitch.
    • The 8-of-10 recent hit sample is small and may overstate his true probability.
  10. Cody Bradford under 3.5 strikeouts
    +54%Won

    Taken at −185 on BetMGM

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 72.5%; BetMGM −185 implies a 64.9% break-even rate, a 7.6-point edge.
    • The −185 price and 3.5 line were unchanged across four BetMGM snapshots from 11:55 AM to 3:05 PM PT.
    • The Mets matchup is more strikeout-prone than Bradford's season baseline, especially Francisco Alvarez (30.5%) and Nick Morabito (30.8%).
  11. New York Mets first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58% independent F5 cash estimate versus 55.4% FanDuel break-even at −124.
    • Cody Bradford: 5.87 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last five starts; season xwOBA allowed is .3446.
    • Nolan McLean owns a 3.70 xERA, .297 xwOBA allowed, and 9.85 K/9 across 30 starts.
    • McLean's last-three ERA is 4.24 versus 3.18 for the season, so recent form narrows the gap.
  12. New York Mets run line −1
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bradford: 5.26 xFIP, 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts versus 4.19 season ERA.
    • His last-3 K/9 is 2.63 versus 4.66 season; third/fourth-times-through-order xwOBA is .407/.362 with K rates under 3%.
    • Texas has no relievers on back-to-back days; 12 arms used over seven days can cover an early Bradford exit.
  13. New York Mets win first 3 innings
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted order is Lindor/Soto/Bichette; their xwOBA values are .332/.411/.328, while New York's team split versus lefties is .3163 xwOBA.
    • Bradford's first-inning profile is .2963 BA allowed over 30 PA; his last-five line is 5.87 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.
    • McLean's first-inning BA allowed is .2321 over 129 PA; his last-five line is 2.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
    • F3 is a different regime from RFI: innings two and three add the middle order and second looks, so the estimate is not a sharp reference.
  14. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi raw prices are fractions (yes_bid 0.48, yes_ask 0.49), so the filed price is 49 cents, not 0.49 cents.
    • Confirmed top-four xwOBA averages are .345 for New York and .340 for Texas, above their hand-split team proxies of .316 and .307.
    • Bradford's first-inning BA allowed is .2963 over 7 games/30 PA; McLean's is .2321 over 30 games/129 PA, creating a lineup-specific asymmetry.
    • The estimated 4-point model gap is modest; ordinary first-inning variance can overwhelm it.
  15. Texas Rangers run line +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  16. Game total under 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Roof closed, Globe Life run factor 94; McLean xERA 3.7 and 9.85 K/9.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-23T14:36:47-07:00; Pinnacle reference total is 8 with under −111.
    • Bradford's 4.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP create a path to nine or more runs.

Questions

Who won Mets vs. Rangers?

The Mets won 7-2 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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