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Updated

FinalYankee Stadium
Rays96-61
2-9
Yankees90-67
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB0001100002
NYY11510001-9

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Yankees to win −141

Why Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant likes it: 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 64% raw true win probability; fair moneyline −163 conservative (−178 raw); p_conservative 62%; confidence medium; Cole/Englert and home-field edge; model locked 5:35 PM CDT.

Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantDown 6% this season · 237 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-10 on this game · +81% return

  1. New York Yankees to win6 models agree
    +71%Won

    Taken at −141 on DraftKings

    6 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Alex's Sharp Line Scanner +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 64% raw true win probability; fair moneyline −163 conservative (−178 raw); p_conservative 62%; confidence medium; Cole/Englert and home-field edge; model locked 5:35 PM CDT.
    • Cole has a 3.84 xERA, 9.12 K9 and 1.10 WHIP across 121.3 innings, creating the established-starter advantage.
    • Cole's last five starts produced a 5.34 ERA and 5.78 innings per start, reducing the starting-pitcher cushion.
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Gerrit Cole: 3.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 9.12 K/9; Mason Englert: 4.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.
    • Yankees lead the run-quality indicators: .594 pythagorean win rate versus Tampa Bay's .559.
    • Tampa Bay owns the better record, 96-61 versus 90-67, and is 8-2 over its last 10 games.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Cashing likelihood: Gerrit Cole brings a 3.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 12 quality starts against Mason Englert's 4.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .3649 xwOBA allowed.
    • Englert's vulnerability is current, not just historical: 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three and 68 days since his last start.
    • Aaron Judge is on the injured list and is absent from the posted lineup; New York's current nine is materially weaker than its full-season roster.
    Drift
    • Model 58%: Yankees +134 run differential vs Rays +86 through 157 games; Cole 3.41 ERA/9.38 K9 vs Englert 3.83/8.87.
    • Yankees versus right-handers: .3413 xwOBA and .4433 SLG; Rays: .3139 xwOBA and .4109 SLG.
    • The market's roughly 0.5-point move against New York may reflect late information not yet identified.
  2. Gerrit Cole under 5.5 strikeouts3 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsK’s, Señor Strikeouts +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K’s
    • Cole's last five starts produced 23 Ks in 121 BF (19%); L3 K/9 is 5.71 versus 9.12 season-to-date.
    • Removing the 11-K outlier leaves 12 Ks in 96 BF; the under signal survives the single-start drop test.
    • The Rays lineup was not fully posted at the snapshot; confirmed lineup changes could alter the contact/K profile.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Cole's last five starts produced 6, 4, 3, 5, 5 strikeouts: 4.6 per start and under this number in four of five.
    • Cole still has a 9.12 season K/9 and recorded six strikeouts in his most recent start.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Cole's last five starts: 23 Ks in 28.67 innings, averaging 4.6 Ks/start, 16% below the 5.5 line.
    • His recent strikeout rate is 7.22 K/9 across those five starts, down from 9.12 K/9 season-long.
    • Cole still has a 9.12 K/9 season baseline and reached six or more Ks in two of his last five starts.
  3. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence fit: Yankees win probability ~55.5%; full-game scoring centered near 6.5, 7.0 runs.
    • Flat run allocation implies roughly 0.60, 0.65 ninth-inning draw probability, below the venue's 76¢ draw quote.
    • Polymarket US prices NO at 25¢ against the unusually high ninth-inning draw price.
    • Per-inning contract is thinner and lacks a historical price series for a staleness check.
  4. New York Yankees over 3.5 runs scored
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Englert is a confirmed RHP with a 4.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.28 L5 ERA, and 68 days since his last start.
    • Posted Yankees top five carry xwOBA marks of .374/.292/.341/.327/.331 against a market implying only 45.5% for four runs.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen has logged 8.33 innings and 111 pitches over three days, increasing late-inning scoring risk.
    • The Yankees' posted bottom three average only .273 xwOBA, creating a real rally-stranding tail.
  5. Gerrit Cole pitcher strikeouts under 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −116 on DraftKings

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cole's L3 K/9 is 6.75 versus 9.12 for the season, roughly 4.3 strikeouts per start over 17.33 innings.
    • Cole averages 87.9 pitches per start, just below the brief's 88-pitch short-outing threshold.
    • The 87.9-pitch average is only marginally below the hook threshold; a clean outing can still produce seven innings.
  6. Total runs over 8.5
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger 0.00 runs: R-vs-R xwOBA is NYY .3241 and TB .3146, with 4,481/4,309 PA; no platoon penalty.
    • Cluster/ISO ledger 0.00: starter K/9 are Cole 9.12 and Englert 8.07; team ISO is .1759/.1460, so no listed adjustment.
    • Bullpen ledger 0.00: three-day IP NYY/TB 7.0/8.33 and back-to-back flags 0/0; park factor 104 and 9.75 umpire runs are uncoefficiented context.
    • Partial coverage: Englert has only 3 current-season starts; both 2026 pitcher profiles are not saber-complete.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Jonathan Aranda RBIs YES 0.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Batting second projects 4.3 PA, maximizing RBI opportunities in Tampa Bay's posted lineup.
    • 469 PA versus right-handers: .2854 AVG and .3589 xwOBA; Victor Mesa Jr. leads off.
    • RBI outcomes depend on runners reaching; Tampa Bay's team xwOBA versus right-handers is .3146.
  2. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees game total over 6.5 runs
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected total runs; fair total 8.0; Over 6.5 win probability 69%; push probability 0%; snapshot 5:36 PM CDT.
    • Mason Englert owns a 5.34 FIP and .3649 xwOBA allowed, with only 4.78 innings per start.
    • Yankees (.3241) and Rays (.3146) rank strongly by 2026 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Gerrit Cole brings a 3.84 xERA, 3.92 FIP, and .302 xwOBA allowed; a long efficient start can suppress scoring.
  3. Gerrit Cole 6+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Compared with all 4+/5+/6+ rungs, 6+ NO is the only Cole side meeting the NO projection gate; Englert 6+ NO at 62¢ carries a 67-day layoff and weaker leash evidence.
    • Cole still reached 6+ in 4 of his last 10 starts; a normal six-inning workload can overcome the matchup.
  4. New York Yankees over 3.5 team runs
    +106%Won

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Englert has been idle 68 days; his 2026 line is 4.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
    • NYY's current lineup owns a .324 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Rice .374, García .341, Jones .331.
    • Yankees averaged 4.3 runs across their last 10; Tampa Bay's bullpen logged 111 pitches across nine arms.
    • Velocity and spin are stable, so the 68-day layoff is a rust hypothesis, not verified physical decay.
  5. Game total under 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  6. New York Yankees run line −1
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes Yankees −1 at +120 (45.45c) versus adjacent Yankees −1.5 at +178 (35.97c); the whole rung's push option is under-reflected relative to that paired quote.
    • A Rays win or a Yankees win by exactly one does not produce a cash win on this contract; both are non-win outcomes, with the latter a push.
  7. Game total under 7; pushes at exactly 7 (11.17%)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 refunds at exactly 7; under 7.5 wins at exactly 7.
    • ProphetX prices under 7 at 57.63c versus under 7.5 at 62.41c: only a 4.78-point premium for the half-point rung.
    • A push is a refund, not a win; the ticket still needs six or fewer runs to profit.
  8. Game first-inning run
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Englert allows .3649 xwOBA with 2.27 HR/9; his sinker and four-seam carry .457/.456 xwOBA allowed.
    • Yankees’ confirmed top four include Rice (.3742 xwOBA, .265 ISO) and García (.3409 xwOBA, .247 ISO).
    • Yankees post .3241 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Yankee Stadium’s HR factor is 123.
    • Cole is the opposing starter: .302 xwOBA allowed, 29.1% first-inning K rate, and .176 first-inning BA allowed.
  9. Ben Rice home runLong shot
    +488%Won

    Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ben Rice is confirmed batting first for New York; active participant status is fresh.
    • Conservative four-PA estimate with Yankee Stadium's 123 HR park factor produces about 27% HR probability.
    • Rice has homered in only 3 of his last 10 games, so recent game-level form is below the 60% threshold.
  10. New York Yankees first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    +66%Won

    Taken at −152 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Englert allows a .3649 xwOBA with a 4.54 ERA; his tracked recent line is 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
    • Cole allows a .302 xwOBA, owns a 3.63 ERA, and has 12 quality starts in 21 starts.
    • Yankees versus right-handed pitching: .3241 xwOBA over 4,481 PA; Tampa Bay: .3146 over 4,309 PA.
    • Cole's last five show a 5.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 7.22 K/9, narrowing the apparent starter gap.
  11. New York Yankees run line −1.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Englert owns a 4.26 season xFIP and 4.54 ERA; his last-five ERA is 6.28, with TTO xwOBA .1845 first to .5067 second.
    • Yankees versus right-handed pitching: .3241 xwOBA and .4155 SLG; the nine-man lineup posted at 3:30 PM PDT.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate, driven by Englert's visible TTO decay and the Yankees' platoon quality; price quality is separately attractive at +178.
    • Most likely loss: New York wins by one run or fails to separate after Englert exits; −1.5 requires a two-run margin.
  12. First-inning runs
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • lineup/starter-specific estimate is 46%, versus Kalshi's raw 0.42 mid-price (42.5c).
    • Posted lineups are confirmed: Yankees top three Rice/Lombard/García average .3405 xwOBA vs RHP; Rays top three Mesa/Aranda/Caminero average .3514.
    • Englert's first-inning profile is vulnerable: .3333 BA and 2 HR in 15 PA; Cole's opposing .1757 BA still leaves the combined two-lineup path live.
    • Englert's first-inning sample is only 3 games and 15 PA; that .3333 BA and 2 HR rate is highly unstable.
  13. Game total runs over 7.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection context. Cole: 3.63 ERA. Englert: 4.54 ERA. Yankee Stadium HR factor: 123. Board as_of_pt: 2026-09-23T15:31:54-07:00.
    • LEAN. The 6.60x size ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
  14. Tampa Bay Rays moneyline +124
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  15. New York Yankees −5.5Long shotHigh conviction
    +1000%Won

    Taken at +1000 on FanDuel

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel posted the Yankees −5.5 at +1000, the legendary blowout price this desk exists to chase.
    • Gerrit Cole is the verified New York starter: 9.12 K/9 and 3.63 ERA in the game dossier.
    • Mason Englert is the verified Tampa Bay starter: 4.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
    • This requires New York to win by six or more; the main Yankees −1.5 line is only +162.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Yankees?

The Yankees won 9-2 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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