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FinalT-Mobile Park
Angels62-98
4-8
Mariners74-86
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAA0000040004
SEA01012040-8

Top model pick, graded

Won

Seattle Mariners F5 winner (first 5 innings) 52¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Full coverage: Kade Anderson and Ryan Johnson are posted and matched; 18 starting lineup slots were captured at 6:10 PM PDT.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-8 on this game · +18% return

  1. Seattle Mariners to win2 models agree
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsParity Desk, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Ledger: Angels vs LHP xwOBA .3001 gives −0.50 runs, capped at −0.40 for Partial; bullpen IP last three days 11.67/11.0, B2B 0.
    • Most likely loss path: Kade Anderson has only 6 starts and 32.33 innings; his saber sample is incomplete.
    Fade the Arm
    • Ryan Johnson carries a 5.11 xFIP against a 4.93 ERA and .337 season xwOBA allowed.
    • Johnson's third-pass .3752 xwOBA allowed and .2987 average rise sharply from .2783/.2027 in the second pass.
    • Seattle's backed lineup is not yet posted in the pregame roster, so key-bat availability is unconfirmed.
  2. Seattle Mariners F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: Kade Anderson and Ryan Johnson are posted and matched; 18 starting lineup slots were captured at 6:10 PM PDT.
    • Seattle's top three versus RHP carry .3217 xwOBA versus .3001 for Los Angeles' top three versus LHP; Anderson's .3081 xwOBA-against beats Johnson's .337.
    • The 4.5-point gap is modest and there is no sharp F5 reference; model error can erase the edge.
  3. Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners first-five total under 6.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors normalize to roughly 66.7% Seattle win probability and 48.3% over 6.5: a Seattle-leaning, low-scoring fitted game.
    • 2026 MLB finals sample: 2,402 games averaged 8.96 runs, median 8, and only 31.5% finished under 6.5; the venue anchor is a distinctly low live environment.
    • Applying the anchor's right-skewed total to the starter-heavy first five gives roughly 2.8, 3.1 expected runs and an estimated 8, 10% chance of 7+ runs.
    • A single crooked inning before the fifth can erase the entire edge; the current state is only 0-0 in the bottom of the second.
  4. 1st-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors fit: Seattle moneyline ~59%; full-game total centers near 7.5 runs.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed: mean 8.96, median 8, Q25, Q75 6, 12; anchor total is modestly lower.
    • F5 total ladder brackets roughly 4.0 runs, consistent with a 7.5 full-game environment.
    • A scoreless first inning still fits a 7.5-run game; early-run variance is high.
  5. No 8th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies roughly a 59.5% Seattle win probability; Pinnacle's −152 independently agrees.
    • Full-game total anchor is 7.5, with Over at 47¢ and Under at 53.5¢: a controlled scoring environment.
    • The 2026 MLB final distribution has an 8-run median and 8.96-run mean; the 7.5 anchor implies roughly 0.83 runs per inning before late-inning adjustment.
    • Per-inning draws remain a first-class, often-modal outcome in low-scoring baseball; one scoreless half each still produces a draw.
  6. Seattle Mariners over 3.5 team runs
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's .3217 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching exceeds Los Angeles's .3000 versus left-handed pitching.
    • Ryan Johnson allows .337 xwOBA with a 4.88 xERA and 4.93 season ERA.
    • T-Mobile Park's 86 run factor suppresses scoring; 59°F and 9-mph wind are not an obvious boost.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Total runs under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Under 7.5 is 0.54; Over is 0.47, totaling 1.00, with both quotes open and tradable.
    • Partial model: LAA xwOBA .3001 vs LHP triggers −0.50 runs, capped at −0.40; SEA xwOBA .3217 vs RHP adds 0.00.
    • No bullpen adjustment: LAA 11.0 and SEA 11.67 innings over three days, both below the 12-inning trigger; SD 4.3 reprice gives model Under 58%.
    • Current pitcher profiles are not saber-complete, so this is Partial coverage rather than Full; Kade Anderson has 6 GS and Ryan Johnson 18 GS.
  2. Kade Anderson over 6.5 strikeouts
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected mean is approximately 5.1 strikeouts, 1.4 below the 6.5 threshold.
    • Anderson averaged 21.8 batters faced, 80.2 pitches, and 4.6 strikeouts over his last five starts.
    • Last-five strikeout results were 7, 5, 5, 3, 3; only one cleared seven.
    • He reached seven strikeouts in his most recent start, so the under is exposed to another efficient deep outing.
  3. Game total under 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.9 runs; fair total line 7.0; Under 7.5 win probability 58.4%; push probability 0% (release 8:10 PM CDT; first pitch 8:40 PM CDT).
    • T-Mobile Park run factor is 86; 59°F, roof open, and 9-mph wind in from left field support a suppressed run environment.
    • At 8:10 PM CDT, official 1, 9 lineups were posted; LAA owns a .3001 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching and SEA .3217 versus right-handed pitching.
    • Ryan Johnson's 4.93 ERA, 5.38 FIP, and .337 xwOBA allowed create a clear path to an early Seattle scoring burst.
  4. Kade Anderson 6+ strikeouts: No
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Workload gate favors NO: last four pitch counts were 84, 72, 81, 79; last-three average 79 pitches projects to 4.9 innings.
    • Seattle's confirmed Angels lineup is 24.3% K versus left-handed pitching; favorable for Anderson, but not the elite ≥27% YES tier.
    • Anderson's last five starts produced 7, 5, 5, 3, 3 Ks; his season K/9 is 7.79, L3 8.83, L5 7.76.
    • The 32.33-inning season sample is thin, and one 7-K outing shows meaningful right-tail variance.
  5. Game total over 8.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Verified starters are Kade Anderson for Seattle and Ryan Johnson for Los Angeles; the market is live and pregame.
    • Most likely loss: Anderson, Johnson and the rested bullpens keep the game at eight runs or fewer.
  6. Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners first-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team first-inning scoreless rates imply 54.7% YRFI before matchup adjustment.
    • Ryan Johnson allowed 4 first-inning homers and 12 walks in 18 starts; his 17.1% first-inning K rate is weak.
    • Confirmed top-four lineups have .322 Seattle xwOBA vs RHP and .300 Los Angeles xwOBA vs LHP.
    • Kade Anderson’s first-inning sample is only 6 games and 23 plate appearances.
  7. Seattle Mariners −1 run line
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Seattle −1 at 50.0¢ versus Seattle −1.5 at 40.65¢; the 9.35-point gap is small relative to the push mass.
    • Seattle could lose or win by 2+; the push only refunds rather than creating profit.
  8. Game total under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 wins at 0, 6 runs, pushes/refunds at exactly 7, and loses at 8+.
    • ProphetX under 7 at +118 and under 7.5 at −115 imply about 14.1% middle-mass, 3.1 points above history.
    • Using the adjacent −115 rung, an 11% push mass implies roughly +109 fair whole-rung pricing; +118 is the cushion.
    • Exact 7 remains a refund, not a win; the 11% estimate is league-wide rather than Angels-Mariners-specific.
  9. Ryan Johnson 5+ strikeouts: No
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18-start innings anchor: 5.00 IP, 85.9 pitches, 21.33 batters faced; the workload cap limits the upper tail.
    • Ryan's exact season strikeout distribution: 5+ in 8/18 starts, 6+ in 5/18, 7+ in 2/18, 8+ in 1/18.
    • The model and sharp reference are close: Ryan's season empirical P(5+) is 0.44 before matchup adjustment, so the edge is not large.
  10. Seattle Mariners first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's confirmed nine average 110.5 wRC+ versus 80.4 for Los Angeles.
    • Ryan Johnson: 4.93 ERA, 4.88 xERA, and .337 xwOBA allowed over 95 innings.
    • Seattle's .3217 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching exceeds Los Angeles's .3001 versus lefties.
    • This Kalshi contract loses on a first-five tie; the exchange quoted a separate tie contract near 16.5%.
  11. Seattle Mariners run line −1.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ryan Johnson owns a 5.11 season xFIP and .337 xwOBA allowed; his third-time-through xwOBA rises to .3752 versus .2783 second time through.
    • Seattle versus right-handed pitching: .3217 xwOBA and a .2242 K rate; the posted lineup includes Arozarena, Raleigh and Naylor in slots 2-5.
    • Seattle's lineup was confirmed at 6:00 PM PDT, locking in the platoon matchup before first pitch.
    • Kade Anderson is the opposing starter with a 3.78 xFIP and .3081 xwOBA allowed, so Seattle's run-line margin depends on its own young arm too.
  12. First inning over 0.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top four are strong by matchup: Angels weighted xwOBA about .342 vs LHP; Mariners about .337 vs RHP, versus team splits of .300 and .322.
    • Ryan Johnson's first-inning profile is 12 walks and 4 homers in 76 PA with only a 17.1% strikeout rate; Kade Anderson has a 30.4% first-inning K rate but only 23 PA.
    • The derived edge is only about 4 percentage points and has no Pinnacle or other sharp RFI reference; it is capped below a sharp-referenced claim.
  13. Seattle Mariners spread −1
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle moneyline is Seattle −152. The MLB preview has Seattle 74-86, Angels 62-98; Kade Anderson's ERA is 4.18 versus Ryan Johnson's 4.93.
    • Most likely loss: Seattle trails or fails to win by two; a one-run Seattle win pushes the −1 run line.
  14. Total runs under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle lists 7 with under −120. Venue board as_of_pt: 2026-09-26 6:06:34 PDT. This is a LEAN, not a model-backed recommendation.
    • Exactly 7 runs pushes; eight or more loses. The one-run margin makes variance material.

Questions

Who won Angels vs. Mariners?

The Mariners won 8-4 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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