App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalCoors Field
Diamondbacks83-74
5-3
Rockies57-100
Score by period
Team123456789T
ARI4000000105
COL0110000103

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game first-five total under 6.5 (first 5 innings) 56¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: AZ moneyline anchor is 61¢ YES versus 39.5¢ Colorado NO, about 60.7% AZ after removing spread.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 10-12 on this game · −17% return

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks to win3 models agree
    +62%Won

    Taken at −162 on FanDuel

    3 modelsweak-pitcher fade ML #1180, Drift +1
    Why 3 models like it
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Two number movers: Mason Adams vulnerability and Arizona's current right-handed matchup.
    • Cashing likelihood: Adams has a 5.09 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and .3641 xwOBA allowed; his last-three ERA is 6.43.
    • Merrill Kelly is improving underneath his season line: 3.25 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over his last five starts.
    Drift
    • Independent model: Arizona 64% win estimate; current run differential is +4 versus Colorado −182 over 157 games each.
    • Arizona's bullpen workload is lighter: 105 pitches/8.33 IP over three days versus Colorado's 154 pitches/10.0 IP.
    • Merrill Kelly's slate xERA is 6.47, while Mason Adams has a 5.09 probable ERA and 9.0 K/9; the starter matchup favors Colorado.
    Selective Pressure
    • Arizona is 83-74 versus Colorado at 57-100 entering this game.
    • Merrill Kelly's last-five ERA is 3.25; Mason Adams carries a 5.09 season ERA through 23 innings.
    • Kelly's 2026 season xERA is 6.47 despite the strong recent ERA, so regression is plausible.
  2. Merrill Kelly over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +154 on DraftKings

    2 modelsK’s, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • Kelly's last five starts produced 27 strikeouts in 118 batters faced (22.9%); L3 rate is 23.9%.
    • The 60/40 recent-season blend projects roughly 4.8, 4.9 strikeouts on 23.6 projected batters faced.
    • Coors Field is a 117 run-factor environment, and Kelly's 6.47 xERA could shorten his outing.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Kelly's recent K/9 is 9.60 over his last three starts and 8.78 over his last five, versus 6.38 for the season.
    • Kelly's 10.6% swinging-strike rate is below the 12% primary marker, so this is not an elite whiff-profile spot.
  3. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply an away win near 60% and a high-scoring game: 10.5-run total over at 54.5¢.
    • The 2026 MLB total-run sample is right-skewed (mean 8.97, median 8, 75th percentile 12); the anchor fit centers this game around 11.5, 12 runs.
    • That fitted run rate gives a flat ninth-inning tie probability roughly 40, 44%, before late-inning scoring uplift.
    • The fitted 40, 44% draw range is model-derived from venue anchors, not an independently estimated ninth-inning database.
  4. Game first-five total under 6.5 (first 5 innings)
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • AZ moneyline anchor is 61¢ YES versus 39.5¢ Colorado NO, about 60.7% AZ after removing spread.
    • Full-game total ladder centers near 10.5, 11.5 runs: Over 10.5 is 55¢, Over 11.5 is 46¢, Over 12.5 is 39.5¢.
    • Using the 2026 empirical total shape (mean 8.97, SD 4.52, right-skew 0.74), the anchors fit roughly an 11-run game.
    • The F5 ladder itself prices Over 5.5 at 56¢, so six runs is a meaningful cluster and can erase the edge.
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks over 6.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed lineup has six left/switch hitters versus right-handed Mason Adams; Arizona's current split is .328 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Coors Field park-factor runs is 117; current conditions are 69°F, partly cloudy, 7-mph wind left to right.
    • Arizona's bullpen has only 2.0 innings and 20 pitches over three days; a long outing could reduce late scoring chances.
  6. Mason Adams pitcher strikeouts under 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's season K rate versus right-handed pitching is 20%, below the 21.5% gate.
    • Adams' L3 K/9 is 8.36 versus a 9.00 season mark, a 7.1% decline.
    • His season average is only 77.6 pitches per start; his last three starts were 84, 77, and 78 pitches.
    • Adams has only 23 innings this season, so the trend sample is thin.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Gabriel Moreno over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Moreno's last 10 games included a hit (90%).
    • Confirmed batting third in Arizona's starting lineup.
    • Mason Adams' .3641 xwOBA allowed is 15.3% above the 2026 pitcher-profile average (.3159).
    • A 90% last-10 hit rate is only a 10-game sample; one hitless game loses the contract.
  2. Game total over 11.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 12.1 runs; fair total line 11.5; Over win probability 55%; push probability 0% (model snapshot 7:10 PM CDT).
    • Coors Field carries a 117 run factor and 104 home-run factor; conditions were 69°F, open roof, 7-mph wind at 7:10 PM CDT.
    • Mason Adams owns a 5.09 ERA, 6.19 FIP and .364 xwOBA allowed; Merrill Kelly has a .380 xwOBA allowed and 6.47 xERA.
    • Kelly's last-five ERA is 3.25, creating a credible path for Arizona's projection to underperform.
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies total under 11.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  4. Game total under 11
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices under 11 at 49.26¢ versus under 11.5 at 53.92¢, a 4.66-point gap.
  5. Colorado Rockies +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Colorado +1 at 44.44¢ versus +1.5 at 50.00¢, only a 5.56-point gap.
    • ProphetX may already embed this push option in its pricing despite the smaller adjacent-rung gap.
  6. Nolan Arenado over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on BetMGM

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 56% hit probability versus 48.8% implied at +105: roughly 7 percentage points of value.
    • Arenado reached 2+ total bases in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
    • His 2026 slugging percentage versus right-handers is .430; Mason Adams allows .364 xwOBA.
    • Ten-game form is a small sample, and 1.5 total bases needs an extra-base hit or multiple hits.
  7. Nolan Arenado home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arenado has 28 home runs in 2026 and hit 4 home runs across his last 10 appearances.
    • Mason Adams brings a 2.35 HR/9 into Coors Field, a favorable pitcher matchup for a power prop.
    • Arenado is confirmed batting sixth in the starting lineup.
    • Home-run markets are highly volatile; one plate appearance outcome can dominate the ticket.
  8. Mason Adams over 3.5 strikeouts
    +108%Won

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9.0 K/9 season rate; his last five starts produced 23 strikeouts in 23.0 innings.
    • Recent workload averaged 4.6 innings and 77.6 pitches, providing a credible four-strikeout path.
    • Conservative estimate is 55% true probability versus FanDuel +108 break-even of 48.1%: +6.9 points.
    • Arizona's 20% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching suppresses the projection.
  9. Merrill Kelly 4 or more strikeouts: No
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp 3.5-K reference: Pinnacle under +107 devigs to 45.5%; this is identical to Kelly recording fewer than 4 strikeouts.
    • Shrunken innings×rate model centers on 5.1 IP and 0.72 K/IP: approximately 0.50 for 0, 3 K, 0.50 for 4+ K, and 0.10, 0.15 for 7+ K.
    • Cross-check is supportive: the first-five total is 6 at Pinnacle and Colorado's team total is 4.5, consistent with a high-run, shorter-outing risk rather than a dominance script.
    • Kelly cleared 4 K in 4 of his last 5 starts and produced 8.78 K/9 over 27.67 recent innings; sustained form defeats the under.
  10. Game total over 11
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coors Field carries a 117 park-factor-runs mark; the 11-run venue rung is a direct run-environment call.
    • Mason Adams: 5.09 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, .3641 xwOBA allowed; L3 ERA is 6.43, with TTO xwOBA .4213 at TTO2 and .3838 at TTO4.
    • Merrill Kelly: 6.47 xERA, .380 xwOBA allowed and .514 xSLG allowed; both listed starters support the high-scoring setup.
    • Most likely loss: Adams and Kelly avoid hard contact early, then both rested bullpens suppress the game under 11.
  11. Colorado Rockies to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Merrill Kelly: 6.47 xERA versus 5.00 ERA, 5.40 FIP, and 4.92 xFIP; contact quality supports a Colorado fade of his arm.
    • Kelly's TTO2 xwOBA is .4634 versus .3347 TTO1 across 138/129 PA, a substantial visible times-through-order decay.
    • Colorado versus right-handers clears the platoon gate: .3181 xwOBA, .4241 SLG, and a .2206 strikeout rate; the lineup was posted at 3:10 PM PDT.
    • Most likely loss: Mason Adams exits early and Arizona's offense exploits Colorado's vulnerable 23-inning starter before Kelly's TTO disadvantage matters.
  12. Game total runs over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Coors Field run factor is 117 and HR factor is 104; the posted starters carry ERAs of 5.09 and 5.00.
    • Most likely loss: Merrill Kelly's 3.25 L5 ERA and Arizona's stronger lineup suppress Colorado enough to finish at 10 runs or fewer.
  13. Arizona Diamondbacks F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Fair AZ F5 win probability 56%, with tie held at 15% and Colorado at 29%; Kalshi YES/NO devigged from 0.48 and 0.53 is 47.5%, gap 8.5p.
    • Gone by Six fires: Mason Adams WHIP L5 is 1.65 (ERA 5.09), above the 1.30 threshold and sharper 4.50 ERA marker; Merrill Kelly's WHIP L5 is 1.26.
    • Most likely loss: Adams materially outperforms his five-start sample while Kelly's 6.47 season xERA signals regression.

Questions

Who won Diamondbacks vs. Rockies?

The Diamondbacks won 5-3 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.