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FinalFenway Park
Guardians82-75
0-1
Red Sox84-73
Score by period
Team123456789T
CLE0000000000
BOS00000100-1

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Guardians first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings) 71¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Anchors imply a modest Boston edge: Polymarket US home win price 56.5¢; Pinnacle reference devigs to 56.6%.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-14 on this game · −13% return

  1. Boston Red Sox to win4 models agree
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on FanDuel

    4 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, Selective Pressure +2
    Why 4 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Fair win probability 59%; fair line approximately Boston −144 versus FanDuel −134.
    • Sonny Gray: 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.06 K/9 and 3.84 xERA; Foster Griffin: 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 4.35 xERA.
    • Cleveland's confirmed lineup has a .3202 recent lineup-WOBA versus Boston's .2710, and Cleveland is 7-3 over its last 10 versus Boston's 4-6.
    Selective Pressure
    • Model estimate: Boston 58.5%, versus a 56.5¢ Polymarket US price.
    • Sonny Gray: 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP; Foster Griffin: 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP.
    • Cleveland is 7-1 in the inspected September 13-22 results; Boston is 3-5.
    Fade the Arm
    • ProphetX −132 versus DK −142, FD −134, Pinnacle −137.
    • Foster Griffin shows 4.35 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, 6.85 L5 ERA, and 9.49 L3 ERA versus 3.67 season ERA.
    • Griffin's 8.76 L3 K/9 shows his swing-and-miss ability can return suddenly.
    Deep Book
    • Foster Griffin and Sonny Gray are both posted starters; Gray's ERA is 2.82 versus Griffin's 3.67.
    • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: 8.84x is below the 10x size-ratio threshold.
  2. Sonny Gray over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelsK’s, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • 29 Ks in 125 L5 batters faced: 23.2% K rate and 5.8 Ks per start.
    • Season K rate is 22.1%; L3/L5 K/9 are 8.38/8.60.
    • A quick, efficient outing or early Boston lead could trim opportunities below the 25-BF projection.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Gray went over 4.5 strikeouts in 8 of his last 10 starts, including all five most recent.
    • His last-five strikeout average was 5.8, while his last-three K/9 was 8.38.
    • Cleveland's 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handers is ordinary, not a high-K matchup.
  3. Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox F5 total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
  4. Boston Red Sox F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Away Griffin WHIP 1.75 exceeds the 1.30 Gone-by-Six threshold; mirrored signal favors Boston at half weight.
    • Gray's slate xWObA-against .302 and xERA 3.84 beat Griffin's .320 and 4.35.
    • Griffin's 4.47 L5 IP/start is below 4.7, downgrading this from Tier 1 and limiting fifth-inning certainty.
  5. Cleveland Guardians first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply a modest Boston edge: Polymarket US home win price 56.5¢; Pinnacle reference devigs to 56.6%.
    • The total ladder implies a low 7.0, 7.3-run environment: over 6.5 at 52.5¢, over 7.5 at 40¢, over 8.5 at 33.5¢.
    • Using the empirical 2,978-game scoring shape and lower starter-only scoring, the fitted F5 margin is within 1 run about 78, 80%.
    • A flat per-inning allocation cannot fully model starter pitch counts, team-run dependence, or an asymmetric early scoring burst.
  6. Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors imply a 64% Boston win probability and a 6.5-run full-game total, a low-scoring home-favorite profile.
    • Observed 2026 MLB finals are strongly right-skewed: 72.5% reached 7+ runs versus 4.6% finishing with 0-2.
    • At 0-0 through the bottom of the second, the fitted remaining first-five distribution centers near 3 runs; I estimate 3 or fewer around 60%.
    • This is a modest edge, not a projection; one crooked inning before the fifth can erase it.
Show all 26 picks
  1. No 8th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors Boston around 56% and Over 6.5 around 52%; moderate favorite and low total are coherent.
    • The 2026 MLB final-run distribution is right-skewed: 8.97 average, with 68.8% of games reaching seven runs or more.
    • Shifting that empirical shape to the 52% Over-6.5 anchor centers the fitted game near 7.7 runs.
    • An inning-level flat-rate approximation misses leverage, substitutions, and actual bullpen availability.
  2. Boston Red Sox over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston owns a .3261 xwOBA versus lefties; Griffin’s last-five ERA is 6.85 with a 1.75 WHIP.
    • The current Boston nine has four left/switch hitters in the top five, while Cleveland’s bullpen logged 6.0 innings and 114 pitches over three days.
    • Griffin’s season xERA is 4.35 and season ERA 3.67, so the recent deterioration may regress.
  3. Total runs under 6.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US under 6.5 costs 48c; open and tradable, both sides quoted 52.5c/48c, sum 1.00.
    • Pinnacle 6.5 is over −115 / under +102; multiplicative devig makes under fair 48.1%.
    • Cleveland xWOba is .3097 versus right-handers across 4,521 PA: −0.50 runs, capped at −0.40 Partial; Boston ledger 0.0.
    • Cleveland's contact profile can still produce an early crooked inning despite the capped platoon debit.
  4. José Ramírez hits over 0.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lineup posted at 1:50 PM: batting second, projected 4.3 PA; full coverage.
    • Vs RHP: 70 hits in 370 PA (.189 average), xwOBA .3142; sample clears the 60-PA gate.
    • José owns a strong overall contact profile (.924 z-contact, .865 contact), so one well-placed ball can beat the split.
  5. Boston Red Sox 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game Boston is 56%, F5 Boston is 47% versus Cleveland 36%.
    • The 7th-inning ladder reverses that direction: Boston 15%, Cleveland 19%, draw 65%; Boston is the clearest late-inning outlier.
    • Boston has 3.33 IP in three days and 11.0 in seven; Cleveland has 4.0 and 18.33, with no back-to-back relievers on either side.
    • The gap is only four price points versus Cleveland, so inning-level variance is substantial.
  6. Game total over 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.8 projected total runs, fair total line 7.5, Over 6.5 win probability 62%, push probability 0%; released 5:40 PM CDT for 6:10 PM CDT first pitch.
    • Official 1, 9 lineups were locked at 5:40 PM CDT; Boston's vs-LHP team xwOBA is .326 and Cleveland's vs-RHP team xwOBA is .310.
    • Foster Griffin carries a 4.35 xERA and .320 xwOBA allowed; Sonny Gray's 3.84 xERA is materially above his 2.82 ERA.
    • A 59°F temperature and 16-mph wind blowing in from center field can suppress extra-base carry.
  7. Foster Griffin 5+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Workload: last four pitch counts 83/62/92/82; pitch-based projected IP is 4.9, while recent volatility supports early-hook risk.
    • Form: 8.15 season K/9, 8.76 L3, 8.06 L5; actual strikeouts average 4.0 over both the last five and last ten starts.
    • The recent form sample is only five to ten starts; no formal pitch cap is documented, and Griffin has reached 92 pitches recently.
  8. Foster Griffin under 14.5 pitcher outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +152 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12.33 IP on 237 pitches across the last 3 starts: 19.22 pitches/IP, with 2 of 3 below 14.5 outs.
    • Rolling workload is only 4.11 IP/start; the starts were 4.0, 2.33, and 6.0 innings.
    • Stuff is stable, not decayed: rolling fastball velocity is +0.40 mph and spin is −26 rpm versus his 2026 baseline.
    • The 6.0-inning outing cleared 14.5 outs, and his season workload remains 166.7 IP across 30 starts.
  9. Foster Griffin 4+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Mr. StrikeoutsUp 11% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Foster Griffin’s TTO3 K rate is 14.7%, down 12.7 percentage points from TTO1.
    • Griffin still has 151 strikeouts this season and recorded 5 Ks in his latest start.
  10. Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  11. Boston Red Sox −1 (pushes on exactly a one-run win; 17.08% empirical push mass)
    0%Push

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Boston −1 at 45.87¢ versus Boston −1.5 at 35.97¢: a 9.90-point gap, 7.18 points short of the push mass.
    • This is not a projection: Boston must still win; a Cleveland win or Boston win by 2+ loses the contract.
  12. Game total under 7 (push/refund at exactly seven runs; 11.01% empirical push mass)
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices under 7 at 55.95¢ versus under 6.5 at 48.78¢: a 7.17-point gap, 3.84 points short of the exact-seven mass.
    • This is not a projection of the scoring environment; eight or more runs loses, while six or fewer wins.
  13. Steven Kwan over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +44%Won

    Taken at −229 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: approximately 76% hit probability versus 69.6% implied at DraftKings (−229), a 6.4-point margin.
    • Kwan recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, with 13 hits in 45 plate appearances.
    • His 2026 average versus right-handed pitching is .2995, and he is confirmed batting first.
    • Sonny Gray has a 2.82 season ERA and 3.84 expected ERA, a credible run-prevention matchup.
  14. Sonny Gray over 17.5 outs recorded
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gray cleared 17.5 outs in 8 of his last 10 starts, including 4 of his last 5.
    • His last-five workload averaged 18.2 outs and 92.8 pitches per start.
    • Estimated true probability is 72% versus 53.7% devigged market fair probability: +18.3 points.
    • Ten-start sample; the two recent misses both finished at 15 outs.
  15. Foster Griffin 5+ pitching strikeouts
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30-start innings mixture: <5 IP 13%, 5, <6 40%, 6, <7 27%, 7+ 20%; model puts 5+ K near 53% versus 0.48.
    • Recent 10 starts average 4.93 IP and 4.0 K; only 3 of 10 reached five.
  16. Boston Red Sox first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent cash estimate 60.5% versus 59.7% break-even at −148; fair price about −154.
    • Foster Griffin: 4.35 xERA, .320 xwOBA allowed, and 6.85 ERA over his last five starts.
    • Sonny Gray: 3.84 xERA, .302 xwOBA allowed, and 3.56 ERA over his last five starts.
    • The edge is small: roughly 0.8% modeled expected margin at the FanDuel price.
  17. Boston Red Sox spread −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Griffin’s xERA is 4.35 versus 3.67 ERA; his last-three ERA is 9.49.
    • Boston versus lefties: .326 xwOBA, .413 SLG, 20.9% K rate; the posted lineup is confirmed.
    • TTO signal, Griffin’s third-time-through K rate falls to 14.7% with .358 xwOBA allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Cleveland wins, or Boston fails to create a two-run margin.
  18. No runs in the 1st inning
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed nine-man lineups plus a conservative lineup/starter blend estimate RFI YES at 37%, NO at 63%.
    • Both teams face RHPs with similar hand splits: Cleveland xwOBA .3134 and Boston .3157; dedicated first-inning data is more contact-suppressive.
    • Sonny Gray's first-inning profile: .222 BA and .250 K% over 28 games/116 PA; Foster Griffin: .235 BA and .301 K% over 30 games/123 PA.
    • The team xwOBA figures are hand-split proxies, not individual first-time-through estimates for the posted top three.
  19. Game total runs over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Board as_of_pt 2026-09-23T13:41:49-07:00. Sonny Gray and Foster Griffin are both posted starters.
    • Cross-market flow is not aligned: moneyline and run-line boards are near-balanced, reducing confirmation.
  20. Foster Griffin under 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Griffin averaged 4.0 strikeouts over his last five starts, 11.1% below the 4.5 line.
    • He stayed under this number in 4 of those 5 starts.
    • DraftKings offers −119, a better price than FanDuel (−132) and BetMGM (−125).
    • Griffin is a listed active starter, but late scratches or a shortened leash remain possible.

Questions

Who won Guardians vs. Red Sox?

The Red Sox won 1-0 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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