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FinalSutter Health Park
Angels60-97
3-7
Athletics62-95
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAA0002100003
OAK41000200-7

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 10.5 43¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Polymarket US anchor: over 9.5 costs 52.5¢, while the higher over 10.5 rung costs 59¢, a direct ladder inversion.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-19 on this game · −21% return

  1. Los Angeles Angels to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −134 on FanDuel

    3 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, MLB ML Deep Dive +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: exact 12,520/20,000 PA true win probability 62.6%; raw fair moneyline −167; p_conservative 60.6% (fair −154); confidence medium; projected runs LAA 5.0, ATH 3.8; data quality 8/10; model locked 8:10 PM CDT (Central Time) with confirmed starters, 1, 9 lineups, bullpen/workload, weather and roof; key risks are home field and late-inning variance.
    • Ureña: 2026 xERA 3.30 and xwOBA-against .281; his last-five ERA is 2.56 across 31.67 recent innings.
    • Athletics have home field and a slightly stronger matchup batting line versus the opposing starter's hand: .2982 xwOBA versus LAA's .3020.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Fair win probability 59%; fair line approximately −144 versus FanDuel's −134.
    • Walbert Ureña: 2.74 ERA, 3.30 xERA, .281 xwOBA allowed, 8.73 K/9.
    • Athletics own the better split offense: .3165 xwOBA versus right-handers, against Angels' .2984 versus left-handers.
    Drift
    • Model 58.5% Angels: run differential −0.57/game versus Athletics −1.41, a +0.84 runs/game team-efficiency gap.
    • Both starters confirmed: Walbert Ureña xERA 3.30 versus Jeffrey Springs 4.82; current-season samples are 144.3 and 138.3 innings.
    • Athletics have home field and Springs can outperform his 4.82 xERA; one starter-quality miss erases the edge.
  2. Game total over 9.52 models agreeHigh conviction
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Pen Check
    Why 2 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • DraftKings over 9.5 moved from −110 to +100, a 20-cent move that clears the 15-cent movement flag.
    • Sutter Health Park carries a 128 run factor, with 89°F conditions supporting run production.
    • Pinnacle's reference is over 9.0 at −119 while the endorsed line is 9.5, so the half-run gap adds model uncertainty.
    Pen Check
    • Model projects 9.8 runs; estimated over probability 54.5% versus +100's 50% break-even.
    • Jeffrey Springs owns a 4.82 xERA and 6.93 L5 ERA; his 43.4% fastball carries .358 xwOBA against.
    • Ureña has a strong 3.30 xERA and 2.14 L3 ERA; Angels' .2984 xwOBA versus lefties is modest.
  3. Walbert Urena over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected 6.1 strikeouts; estimated probability of 5+ is 73%.
    • Confirmed nine-man Athletics lineup averages approximately 26.9% strikeouts versus right-handed pitching.
    • Athletics' lineup-specific split is based on batter-versus-hand samples of uneven size, despite every starter clearing the 60-PA lineup gate except one.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: 63.5% probability of 5+ strikeouts versus 57.3% implied at −134; clears the 4-point value gate.
    • Ureña went over 4.5 strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • Athletics' projected lineup strikeout rate is only 21.4%, a less favorable matchup than league-average contact profiles.
  4. Los Angeles Angels first-five to win (first 5 innings)2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    2 modelsBello, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    Why 2 models like it
    Bello
    • 2.74 ERA/.281 xwOBA for Walbert Ureña versus Jeffrey Springs at 6.18/.335; L3 ERA is 2.14 versus 4.70.
    • F5 profiles favor Los Angeles: 2.52 team runs/game versus Athletics 2.41, while Springs' side allows 3.34 opponent F5 runs/game.
    • Angels hit only .2288/.2984 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Springs can still outperform his 6.18 ERA.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent cash estimate 59%; fair price approximately −144 versus the −130 ticket price.
    • Walbert Urena: 3.30 xERA and .281 xwOBA allowed; Jeffrey Springs: 4.82 xERA and .335 xwOBA allowed.
    • Athletics own a stronger .3165 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching than the Angels' .2984 versus lefties.
  5. Los Angeles Angels F5 winner (first 5 innings)High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gone by Six fires for Los Angeles: Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs has 1.42 L5 WHIP and 6.93 L5 ERA.
    • Aligned starter read: Walbert Ureña has 1.07 L5 WHIP, 2.56 L5 ERA, 8.81 L5 K/9 and .281 xwOBA allowed.
    • Three-way model: Angels 53%, Athletics 30%, draw 17%; venue Angels live price 49c, both sides 49c/52c sum 1.01 and are OPEN/tradable.
    • A 17% modeled F5 draw is a genuine losing outcome for the Angels winner contract.
  6. Game total under 10.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchor: over 9.5 costs 52.5¢, while the higher over 10.5 rung costs 59¢, a direct ladder inversion.
    • The live anchors agree on game state: Athletics 85.5% moneyline and a 4-0 lead after 1.5 innings.
    • Current-season MLB sample: 2,357 games averaged 8.97 runs, with an 8-run median and 15 runs at the 90th percentile.
    • Live sportsbook references show totals of 11.5 to 12, materially higher than this venue’s 9.5 anchor; this is venue self-reference, not a sharp-confirmed edge.
Show all 28 picks
  1. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor: Angels 55c; Pinnacle reference devigs Angels near 55%, so the sides agree.
    • Full-game totals imply a roughly 9.4-run center: Over 8.5 at 59.5c, Over 9.5 at 48c, Over 10.5 at 41c.
    • 2026 MLB finals: 2,360 games, mean 8.96 runs, median 8, Q75 12, Q90 15; the right-skewed baseline supports a high-scoring environment.
    • Ninth-inning scoring is state-dependent and may differ materially from a flat split.
  2. Los Angeles Angels under 6.5 team runsFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors: Angels 55.5c to win and full-game over 9.5 at 46.5c imply a modest Angels edge in a roughly 9.5-run environment.
    • The 2026 empirical MLB run distribution is right-skewed (mean 8.96 total runs, SD 4.51, skew 0.74 across 2,361 games), so no symmetric/Poisson shortcut was used.
    • Fitting that empirical shape to the anchors puts the Angels near 5 runs and their 7+ run probability around 28, 30%, below the 35c YES price.
    • A single Angels offensive outburst to 7 runs loses the contract despite the distributional edge.
  3. Athletics over 6.5 runs scoredFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Athletics lead 5-0 after two innings; over 6.5 needs only two more runs with at least seven innings remaining.
    • Confirmed A's lineup faces right-handed Walbert Ureña: .3165 team xwOBA and 21.4% strikeout rate versus RHP.
    • Athletics' opposing home bullpen has logged 9.0 innings over three days, a favorable fatigue setup if Ureña exits.
    • Ureña's current profile is respectable: .281 xwOBA against and 2.56 ERA over his last five starts.
  4. Total runs under 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle same-rung 8.5: over −146 / under +127; devigged under fair 42.6%.
    • Exchange beats best US under prices: FanDuel +130 implies 43.5%; DraftKings +122 implies 45%.
    • Athletics .3165 xWoba versus right-handers and Sutter Health Park factor 128 create a crooked-number path.
  5. Walbert Ureña over 2.5 strikeoutsFavoriteHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Ureña's last 10 starts cleared 2.5 strikeouts (90%).
    • Ureña is the live-verified projected starter and throws right-handed.
    • The sample is only 10 starts; the lone miss was a two-strikeout outing.
  6. Athletics inning 4 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Athletics lead 4-0, full-game Athletics is 0.81, but inning-4 Athletics is only 0.23.
    • The F5 Athletics contract remains 0.55 despite the 4-0 first-inning lead; the inning ladder has not reflected that state.
    • Athletics vs RHP owns .3165 xwOBA; Los Angeles Angels vs LHP is .2984.
    • Ureña could be removed early; the replacement pitcher and exact availability are unknown.
  7. Game total over 9.5 runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 9.8 runs, fair total line 9.5, win probability 54.8%, push probability 0%, release 8:10 PM CDT.
    • Athletics vs right-handed pitching: .3165 xwOBA and .4023 SLG across 4,136 PA.
    • Jeffrey Springs carries a 4.82 xERA and .335 xwOBA allowed in the current Athletics sample.
    • Walbert Ureña has a 3.30 xERA and .281 xwOBA allowed, giving the Athletics a credible run-prevention counter.
  8. Jeffrey Springs over 4.5 strikeouts
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.38 baseline Ks from a 60/40 season-versus-L5 rate blend over 21.9 projected TBF; matchup adjustment keeps the estimate near 3.7.
    • Last five starts produced 15 strikeouts in 108 TBF; L3 K/9 is 6.46 versus 7.09 for the season.
    • Kalshi NO on the 5+ contract costs 49¢, equivalent to under 4.5, while the Poisson/NB band centers near 69% under.
    • Felix Neon’s pitcher-zone fit is mildly negative for Springs: CS delta −0.00 and z-score −1.85.
  9. Jeffrey Springs over 5 strikeouts
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Springs owns 7.09 season K/9, 6.46 L3 and 7.30 L5; last five produced 20 Ks, last ten 29.
    • Last four pitch counts: 66, 94, 81, 90; 5.02 projected IP, with the latest short outing supporting the under.
    • Confirmed Angels lineup projects 227 Ks in 938 PA versus lefties (24.2%), only borderline favorable for strikeouts.
    • The 24.2% lineup K rate is only borderline; normal variance can produce five strikeouts.
  10. Walbert Urena over 17.5 pitcher outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on DraftKings

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ureña has averaged 7.0 IP over his last three starts: 21.0 IP on 280 pitches, only 13.3 P/IP.
    • His last five-start workload is 31.67 IP, and the current 17.5-out threshold requires only six completed innings.
    • Stable physical profile: recent fastball is approximately +0.91 mph and +10 rpm versus the 2026 sinker baseline; decay is not verified.
    • One poor early inning can force a quick hook before six innings despite Ureña's strong recent workload.
  11. Full-game total over 9.5 runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 10.10 total runs; Poisson P(over 9.5) 55.3% and P(under 9.5) 44.7%.
    • Sutter Health Park carries a 128 run factor and 131 HR factor; 83°F at 24-ft elevation supports carry despite only 3-mph wind.
    • Jeffrey Springs: 6.18 ERA, 4.82 xERA, 2.15 HR/9 and 45.1% FB; the park amplifies his fly-ball/HR vulnerability without requiring the wind-out trigger.
    • Ureña owns a 2.74 ERA, 3.30 xERA and 55% GB rate; his ground-ball profile can neutralize the park.
  12. Walbert Ureña over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −135 on BetMGM

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ureña's last five starts produced 9, 7, 4, 8 and 3 strikeouts; his L5 K/9 is 8.81.
    • He has averaged 92.8 pitches across those five starts and is on normal six-day rest.
    • His 34.1% changeup usage carries a 38.1% whiff rate; the sweeper whiffs at 33.6%.
    • The −135 price leaves limited margin; this is a standard qualifying edge, not a runaway number.
  13. Game first-inning runs over 0.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58% model fair probability versus 53c Kalshi price: roughly five percentage points of disagreement.
    • Springs carries a .335 xwOBA allowed mark and 6.93 ERA across his last five starts.
    • Athletics' confirmed top four post .305-.343 xwOBA against right-handed pitching; Sutter Health Park has a 128 runs factor and 131 HR factor.
    • Ureña is a genuine NRFI counterweight: .165 first-inning BA allowed, one first-inning HR in 26 games.
  14. Game total under 9 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices under 9 at 47.62¢ versus under 9.5 at 53.05¢: only 5.43 price-cents separate the whole and half rung.
    • No projection is being asserted: this five-season league baseline may not match this matchup's total-9 probability.
  15. Henry Bolte over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at −215 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 73.5% hit probability versus 68.3% implied at −215; clears the 4-point value gate.
    • Bolte recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Sutter Health Park carries a 128 runs factor, a strong hitter-friendly environment.
    • Walbert Ureña's .207 expected batting average allowed is a meaningful pitcher-quality counterweight.
  16. Donovan Walton over 0.5 hits
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated hit probability 65%; DraftKings −146 break-even is 59.3%: +5.7 percentage points.
    • Walton is confirmed batting sixth and active; his 2026 split versus right-handers is .280 with a .465 slugging percentage.
    • His matchup xwOBA is .3365, and his last-seven batting average is .3365.
    • Walbert Ureña has a 2.74 ERA and .281 expected wOBA allowed, a stronger matchup than Springs' headline ERA suggests.
  17. Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics over 9.5 runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated over probability 56%; DraftKings +100 break-even is 50%: +6 percentage points.
    • Sutter Health Park carries a 128 runs factor and 131 home-run factor; game weather is 89°F with wind to right field.
    • Both bullpens logged 7+ innings and 152-153 pitches over the last three days.
    • Walbert Ureña has a 2.74 ERA and 3.30 expected ERA, creating a credible low-scoring path.
  18. Walbert Ureña pitching strikeouts 5+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; innings-weighted projection is 5.2 strikeouts with P(5+) about 0.62.
    • Ureña's 26-start empirical distribution: 5+ Ks in 17/26; 5 starts were under five innings.
    • He averages 5.49 innings, 89.9 pitches, and 8.73 K/9; recent K/9 is 8.57 over three and 8.81 over five starts.
    • Athletics' lower K rate versus right-handers trims the upside relative to Ureña's raw season rate.
  19. First-inning runs
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jeffrey Springs' 2026 first-inning profile: 34 hits, 16 walks, and 4 homers in 133 PA; first-inning BA .2906.
    • Sutter Health Park is a verified hitter environment: 128 run factor and 131 HR factor; clear, 89°F, wind 2 mph out to right.
    • Full-game 9.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers a different nine-inning distribution, including middle order, fatigue, and bullpen innings.
  20. Los Angeles Angels −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION corroboration: Walbert Ureña 2.74 ERA and .281 xwOBA allowed versus Jeffrey Springs 6.18 ERA and .335 xwOBA allowed.
    • LEAN only. The 4.7x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  21. Los Angeles Angels F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: both starters posted, both 1-9 lineups captured, and both starters have F5 L5 logs.
    • Raw Kalshi implied_probability 0.48 is a fraction: 48%; three-way ladder 48% / 37.5% / 14.5% devigs to 48% Angels.
    • Ureña's profile confirms starter status via the date-cutoff profile, but the live today profile row was absent; posted probables and F5 board agree.
  22. Donovan Walton under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +130 on BetMGM

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 hits in his last 10 games, making the under 6-4 in that span.
    • Athletics versus right-handed pitching: .2305 team average, .302 xwOBA, 25.8% strikeout rate.
    • BetMGM's +130 implies 43.5%; the recent under rate is 60%, a 16.5-point gap before matchup adjustment.
    • Ten-game form is a small sample, and one extra plate appearance can materially change the outcome.

Questions

Who won Angels vs. Athletics?

The Athletics won 7-3 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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