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Updated

FinalWrigley Field
Marlins77-80
3-2
Cubs87-70
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIA0000021003
CHC0000020002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts −150

Why MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL likes it: Confirmed Miami lineup has nine starters; its current right-handed matchup profile is 22% strikeouts across 3,814 PA.

MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELDown 3% this season · 117 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-22 on this game · −55% return

  1. Chicago Cubs to win8 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −180 on FanDuel

    8 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, MLB ML Deep Dive +6
    Why 8 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Kevin Gausman: .308 expected wOBA allowed and 1.27 WHIP versus Ryan Gusto at .339 and 1.43.
    • Cubs are 45-34 at home with a .587 pythagorean win rate; Miami is 32-47 on the road with a .502 pythagorean rate.
    • Gausman's recent five-start ERA is 4.39 versus Gusto's 3.24, so the short-term starter form points against the bet.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent fair probability: 67%; fair line −203 versus FanDuel −180.
    • Cubs are 87-70 with a .587 Pythagorean win rate; Miami is 77-80 with a .502 mark.
    • Alex Bregman is out day-to-day, removing a productive bat from Chicago's projected strength.
    Parity Desk
    • Starters confirmed: Kevin Gausman and Ryan Gusto are posted, off IL; slate lists 31 and 17 starts, with complete profiles.
    • Cubs' .3239 xwOBA versus right-handers clears the .315 offensive gate; 4,570 PA versus RHP.
    • Most likely loss path: Gusto beats his 4.61 xFIP baseline and limits a Cubs lineup that still hits only .246 versus right-handers.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Gusto’s game-specific WHIP is 1.43 and xERA 4.95, clearing two starter-vulnerability gates.
    • Cubs versus right-handers: .3239 xwOBA, .4247 SLG, and .2153 strikeout rate; Gusto is right-handed.
    • Gusto’s 4.03 ERA and .339 xwOBA allowed do not independently clear the vulnerability gate.
  2. Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts4 models agree
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on FanDuel

    4 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts +2
    Why 4 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Confirmed Miami lineup has nine starters; its current right-handed matchup profile is 22% strikeouts across 3,814 PA.
    • Gausman averaged 23.8 batters faced and 6.8 strikeouts over his last five starts; matchup clash adds 2.28 percentage points.
    • Miami's confirmed lineup includes contact-oriented hitters, so the 22% opponent rate can suppress Gausman's recent K pace.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 11.34 K/9 over his last three starts and 10.67 over his last five.
    • Gausman recorded 21 strikeouts in his last three starts and cleared 5.5 in all five.
    • He worked only 4.0 innings in one of his last three starts, so workload remains decisive.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model estimates 64% versus FanDuel −138 implied 58%, a 6.0-point margin.
    • Gausman went over 5.5 strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts, averaging 6.0 strikeouts.
    • Gausman averaged 5.63 innings across the last 10 starts, leaving little margin above 5.5.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Gausman has 6, 6, 9, 7 and 6 strikeouts in his last five starts: 6.80 per start and over 5.5 in all five.
    • His current prop board shows 10.67 K/9 over the last five starts, versus 9.26 for the season.
    • The five-start streak is a small sample, while Gausman's season ERA is 4.55.
  3. Chicago Cubs F5 spread −1.5 (first 5 innings)High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live Polymarket US price: Chicago Cubs −1.5 is 0.34; paired MIA +1.5 quote is 0.67, sum 1.01, open/tradable and depth clears.
    • Ryan Gusto's away-side L5 WHIP is 1.64; the brief's mirror Gone-by-Six signal favors Chicago at half weight.
    • Kevin Gausman's xwOBA against is .308 versus Gusto's .339; Chicago's posted top-three vs R xwOBA averages .348 versus Miami's .329.
    • The +5.3p gap is modest and F5 run-margin variance is high; a one-run Cubs lead loses this half-run contract.
  4. Chicago Cubs F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair: Cubs 55.5%, Marlins 28.5%, draw 16%; venue Cubs 0.50/0.51 devigs to 49.5%.
    • Gausman L5 WHIP 1.15 versus Gusto 1.64; season xWoba against favors Gausman .308 to .339.
    • Gusto's L5 ERA is better, 3.24 versus Gausman's 4.39; WHIP and xWoba drive the Cubs read.
  5. Game first-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket anchors imply roughly 64% Chicago win probability and a low-but-live 6.5-run full-game environment.
    • At 0-0 after two innings, 2026 MLB data found first-five over 3.5 in 32.7% of 675 comparable games.
    • The Polymarket first-five ladder quotes over 2.5 at 72%, over 3.5 at 26%, and over 4.5 at 17%.
    • The game is live at 0-0 with the bottom of the second underway; fewer remaining outs compress the over.
  6. No 6th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US prices Chicago at 62.5% and Over 6.5 at 53.5%; Pinnacle independently shows 62.1% and 52.6%.
    • Season sample: 2,282 MLB games averaged 8.98 runs with 4.52 SD, median 8, and 40.1% reaching 10+; the checked distribution is right-skewed and overdispersed.
    • The 6th-inning draw is quoted at 65¢ YES / 36¢ NO, a materially larger disagreement than the adjacent 7th- and 8th-inning draw prices.
    • Per-inning scoring is not iid; bullpen quality and the score state can materially change the 6th-inning tie rate.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Chicago Cubs over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cubs' confirmed 1, 9 lineup faces probable right-hander Ryan Gusto; Chicago owns .3283 xwOBA versus RHP over the last 15 days.
    • Gusto's probable line is 4.03 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.51 K/9; Wrigley carries a 106 run park factor.
    • Gusto's last five-start rolling line is materially better: 3.24 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and only 5.0 innings per start.
  2. Pete Crow-Armstrong HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Batting first, projected 4.3 PA; versus RHP: .2766 AVG, .3988 xwOBA, 117 H in 483 PA.
    • DERIVED reference: H 65.4%, runs 52%, RBI 35.9%; 12.5% correlation haircut yields 78% fair.
    • Wrigley carries 106 run and 119 HR park factors; 12-mph wind in from center is a production drag.
  3. Chicago Cubs first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −172 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 69% independent F5 estimate vs FanDuel −172 (63.2% implied): 5.8 percentage-point gap; fair price about −223.
    • Kevin Gausman: 4.01 xERA, .308 xwOBA, .249 xBA, .407 xSLG allowed versus Ryan Gusto: 4.95, .339, .279, .439.
    • Confirmed Cubs top five average 126.6 wRC+ and .339 xwOBA; Miami's top five average 114.4 wRC+ and .331 xwOBA.
    • Gusto's season workload is a real F5 concern: 82.7 innings in 17 starts, 4.86 innings per start, only 2 quality starts.
  4. Game total over 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.4 runs, fair total line 7.5, win probability 58%, push probability 0%; release timestamp 6:10 PM CDT.
    • Chicago's lineup owns a .324 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Miami's is .312, with both confirmed nine-man lineups posted at 6:10 PM CDT.
    • Ryan Gusto carries a .339 xwOBA allowed and 4.03 ERA; Kevin Gausman's 4.55 ERA and 4.39 L5 ERA leave room for offense.
    • Wrigley Field is cool at 63°F with a 12-mph wind in from center field, a meaningful power suppressor.
  5. Chicago Cubs team total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel offers −113 while Pinnacle is −119; the six-cent US price gap is the actionable discrepancy.
    • Chicago scored 57 runs over its last 10 completed games, 5.7 per game; this is not a Ghost Offense.
    • Ryan Gusto's last three starts: 4.80 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 15.0 IP, 270 pitches, 18.0 P/IP.
    • Kevin Gausman's last three starts average 5.56 IP, 17.46 P/IP, with velocity −0.66 mph and spin +8 rpm versus baseline; efficient Cubs pitching can suppress game pace.
  6. Full-game total over 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 7.55 runs; Poisson Over 6.5 probability 63%, fair total 7.5.
    • Wrigley carries a 106 run factor and 119 HR factor; posted lineups weight approximately 5 left/4 right each.
    • Gusto: 4.03 ERA, 4.95 xERA, 1.20 HR/9, 38.7% FB%; Gausman: 4.55 ERA, 4.01 xERA, 1.31 HR/9, 40.8% FB%.
    • Wind-in effects at Wrigley can exceed the modeled 0.84 weather multiplier and erase marginal fly-ball carry.
  7. Game total under 7 (pushes/refunds at exactly 7 runs)
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 wins on 0, 6 runs, pushes/refunds at exactly 7, and loses on 8+; adjacent under 7.5 has no push.
    • Eight or more total runs loses; exactly seven returns stake rather than producing a profit.
  8. Chicago Cubs run line −1 (pushes at exactly a one-run win)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cubs −1 wins by 2+, pushes/refunds on a one-run Cubs win, and does not lose in that state.
    • ProphetX prices Cubs −1 at 53.70¢ (−116) versus Cubs −1.5 at 42.74¢ (+134); the 10.96-point gap is below the historical push mass.
    • Cubs by 0 or any loss loses the contract; only a one-run Cubs win pushes.
  9. Heriberto Hernández over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −134 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 71.5% versus DraftKings −134 implied 57.3%, a 14.2-point margin.
    • Hernández recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, with 12 hits in 44 at-bats.
    • His season game hit rate is 74-for-125 (59.2%); the recent form is materially stronger.
    • The official batting order is not captured yet; the active roster signal is not a posted lineup card.
  10. Ryan Gusto under 15.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −182 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 72% under probability versus FanDuel break-even of 64.5% at −182: +7.5 percentage points.
    • Gusto finished under 15.5 outs in 14 of 17 2026 starts; season workload averages 14.6 outs and 4.86 innings.
    • His last 10 starts average 14.6 outs and 78.2 pitches, with 7 of 10 below the posted threshold.
    • The recent under rate is 7 of 10, leaving three over outcomes in the latest sample.
  11. Chicago Cubs −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gusto's recent ERA is 9.77 (L3) and 9.36 (L5) versus 5.67 season ERA; the board still offers +130.
    • Confirmed Cubs lineup versus right-handed Gusto clears the platoon gate: .3278 xwOBA, .4184 SLG, .2224 K rate.
    • Miami's bullpen has logged 7.0 innings and 126 pitches over three days; that workload can cap the fade if Gusto exits early.
  12. No runs in the 1st inning
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • posted top-three lineups are confirmed; RHP splits show CHC OBP .371/.339/.355 and MIA .347/.319/.309.
    • Gausman's first-inning profile: .262 BA, 21% K, 3 HR in 138 PA; Gusto's: .258 BA, 21.1% K, 1 HR in 76 PA.
    • Wrigley is 106 runs/119 HR park factor, but the current 12-mph wind is in from center field. The 6.5 full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it prices different innings and personnel.
    • Pitcher-specific first-inning samples are only 31 Gausman games and 17 Gusto games, so the estimate is noisy.
  13. Miami Marlins to win
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Board as of 2026-09-23 2:12:30 PM PDT. Price is +166, stored at 37.59¢; the $300 gate clears.
    • LEAN only. The 4.75x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  14. Pete Crow-Armstrong over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 29 total bases in his last 10 games (2.90/game) versus a 1.5 line; 21 in his last five (4.20/game).
    • Recent profile shows .8788 L7 SLG and 158.3 wRC+, a major form-versus-line gap.
    • Crow-Armstrong is confirmed batting leadoff and active; DraftKings posts +104 on over 1.5 total bases.
    • The 10-game sample is volatile and includes 11- and 8-total-base outliers.

Questions

Who won Marlins vs. Cubs?

The Marlins won 3-2 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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