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FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Padres87-70
5-1
Dodgers97-60
Score by period
Team123456789T
SD0002200015
LAD0001000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Diego Padres F5 spread +1.5 (first 5 innings) 57¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Yamamoto’s L5 WHIP is 0.74 over 33.67 IP, limiting the Dodgers’ likely first-five margin.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-20 on this game · −36% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to winFavorite4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −225 on FanDuel

    4 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, bully ball strategy +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Dodgers' last-10 run differential is +2.7 per game versus San Diego's +1.5; season baselines are +1.26 versus +0.21.
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.51 ERA and 2.94 xERA; Robbie Ray: 3.75 ERA and 4.79 xERA.
    • Dodgers' bullpen has thrown 16.0 innings and 279 pitches over the last three days.
    bully ball strategy
    • Yamamoto: 2.51 ERA, 2.94 xERA, 2.94 FIP; Ray: 3.75 ERA, 4.79 xERA, 3.93 FIP.
    • Confirmed lineups favor Los Angeles: .334 xwOBA/.424 SLG versus left-handers; San Diego is .321/.395 versus right-handers.
    • Dodgers relievers logged 138 pitches and 8.0 innings over three days versus San Diego's 66 and 4.0.
    Drift
    • Dodgers run differential +200 versus San Diego +34 after 157 games.
    • Dodgers vs LHP xwOBA .3342 versus Padres vs RHP .3211; Dodger Stadium run factor 96.
    • Most likely loss: Ray suppresses the Dodgers' right-handed-heavy lineup and San Diego wins a low-scoring game.
    Fade the Arm
    • Ray’s 2026 xERA is 4.79 and xFIP 4.90 against a 3.75 ERA.
    • Ray’s last-three and last-five ERA are 8.78 and 5.84; his third-time-through xwOBA is .354.
    • The ProphetX price closely matches Pinnacle −213, so this is a modest projection edge rather than broad market disagreement.
  2. San Diego Padres F5 spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yamamoto’s L5 WHIP is 0.74 over 33.67 IP, limiting the Dodgers’ likely first-five margin.
    • Padres top three xwOBA: Tatis .380, Harris .309, Machado .329; team versus RHP xwOBA .321.
    • Ray’s L5 WHIP is 1.42, ERA 5.84, and xwOBA-against .334; Dodgers can win by two early.
  3. San Diego Padres first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 67% Dodgers full-game anchor and the 8.5-run total imply a coherent Dodgers-leaning, moderate-scoring game.
    • 2026 MLB empirical totals: mean 8.98, median 8, SD 4.52; the observed right-skew supports meaningful margin protection.
    • The first-five winner prices Dodgers at 58c, but Padres +1.5 is only 57c; that is a direct cross-rung inconsistency.
    • A two-run Dodgers lead after five beats the +1.5 cover; one early home run can dominate this thin window.
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers over 4.5 runs scoredHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • LAD's confirmed lineup includes Shohei Ohtani batting second after returning, plus six left-handed bats; the lineup is specifically live, not inferred.
    • The opposing starter is confirmed left-handed Robbie Ray; LAD's season xwOBA versus lefties is .3342 and its last-15-day split is .3387.
    • Ray's current profile shows .334 xwOBA allowed and his last-five-start line is 5.84 ERA / 1.42 WHIP, supporting the LAD side of the venue's unexplained one-run gap.
    • The 1.0-run discrepancy can belong to San Diego rather than Los Angeles; choosing LAD requires the lefty matchup and Ohtani lineup to identify the side.
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors imply roughly a 70% Dodgers win probability and a 7.5-run game centered near 8 runs.
    • Using the 2026 empirical scoring shape (mean 8.97, median 8.0, SD 4.52), the fitted split gives LAD about 4.7, 4.9 runs.
    • The target is internally aligned with both liquid anchors; this is venue self-reference, not an external projection.
    • The live state is 0-0 in the bottom of the second with one out; continued early suppression makes four Dodgers runs difficult.
  6. No 7th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7th-inning ties occurred in 57.7% of 9,687 regular-season innings from 2023-26; empirical NO baseline is 42.3%.
    • Anchor prices imply roughly a 67% Dodgers win probability and an 8.7-run scoring center, not an extreme low-scoring game.
    • Polymarket US prices the 7th-inning draw at 64¢ YES / 37¢ NO, the largest draw inflation among the inning ladder.
    • Cross-game inning-rate calibration is not a game-specific model; the thin contract can simply be right at 64¢.
Show all 27 picks
  1. Robbie Ray over 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected mean 4.5 Ks with 67% probability of 4+; 1.0-K gap clears the 0.75-K bar.
    • Confirmed Dodgers lineup has 4503 PA and a 19.8% weighted K rate against Ray's left-handed matchup.
    • Ray has 19.6% season K rate; recent five-start pitch counts average 88.4, supporting roughly 22.5 expected batters faced.
    • Dodgers' lineup K rate is slightly below their 20.1% team split versus left-handed pitching, with low-K bats Betts and Freeman.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers not to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180Up 10% over 168 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cashing likelihood: high, Dodgers' posted nine-man lineup is intact, including Betts, Ohtani, Smith, Freeman, Hernández and Tucker.
    • Robbie Ray qualifies as vulnerable: 4.79 xERA and 1.35 WHIP; his last-five ERA/WHIP are 5.84/1.42.
    • Dodgers versus left-handed pitching: .3342 xwOBA, .424 SLG, and .201 strikeout rate across 1,930 PA.
    • Dodgers' bullpen has logged 279 pitches and 16.0 innings over the last three days; a short Yamamoto outing could erase the starter edge.
  3. First-inning runs under 0.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model: T1 xRuns 0.23 (SD) and B1 xRuns 0.36 (LAD); NRFI 55.4%, fair price −124.
    • Yamamoto: F1 .2222 BA/.211 K%; season F-strike .6246, CSW .2881, K-BB .2009.
    • Ray: F1 .219 BA/.200 K%; season F-strike .5854, CSW .2695, K-BB .0803.
    • LAD's first six versus LHP average .359 xwOBA; Ohtani and Teoscar create immediate hard-contact risk.
  4. Xander Bogaerts over 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of Xander Bogaerts' last 10 games finished with zero RBI (80% hit rate).
    • Yoshinobu Yamamoto's .266 xwOBA allowed is 19.8% below the .3316 qualified-pitcher average.
    • Bogaerts is confirmed batting sixth in the 6:20 PM PDT lineup snapshot.
    • The 10-game sample is exactly the minimum threshold, not a dominant 90% trend.
  5. San Diego Padres 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • SD is 15¢ in the 7th, below 16¢ in the 6th and 19¢ in the 8th.
    • the 64¢ 7th-inning draw is a peak, despite a 55.5% full-game Over 7.5 reference.
    • F5 board is LAD 58¢ / draw 15¢; that aggregate shape implies more decisive scoring than the 7th's draw-heavy quote.
    • LAD is a 67¢ full-game favorite and Yamamoto may suppress SD even after the starter handoff.
  6. Game total over 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.7 runs, fair total line 8.7, win probability 53.6%, push probability 0% (locked 2026-09-23 8:40 PM CDT).
    • Dodgers lineup xwOBA is .334 versus left-handed pitching; Padres lineup xwOBA is .321 versus right-handed pitching.
    • Robbie Ray carries a 4.79 xERA and 5.84 ERA over his last five starts; Yoshinobu Yamamoto's xERA is 2.94.
    • Yamamoto allows a .266 xwOBA and can suppress San Diego's top half of the order.
  7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 178 Ks in 682 2026 batters faced (26.1%); L8 sample rises to 60 Ks in 201 BF (29.9%).
    • Recent workload is clean: 6.67 L5 IP/start, 97.2 L5 pitches/start, seven days' rest, no IL flag.
    • Eight-start recency sample includes a 10-K high and 3-K low; outlier removal helps, but variance remains.
  8. Game total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 10 listed games: Dodgers scored 53 runs and Padres 64; neither team is in Ghost Offense.
    • Yamamoto: 13.05 P/IP, −0.79 mph velocity delta, and +65 rpm spin delta; stable stuff supports normal upside.
    • Ray: 18.75 P/IP, +0.40 mph velocity delta, and +57 rpm spin delta; high efficiency is sequencing noise, not decay.
    • Yamamoto owns a 2.51 ERA and 0.87 WHIP; his quality start can strand the over.
  9. Robbie Ray under 14.5 pitcher outs
    +115%Won

    Taken at +115 on BetMGM

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ray logged 18, 15, and 7 outs in his last three starts; 13.33 average versus 14.5.
    • Recent workload is 4.44 IP/start, below the 5.0-IP gate; +115 is not heavy juice.
    • Physical check: 18.75 P/IP, +0.40 mph velocity delta, and +57 rpm spin delta; no verified decay.
    • Season workload is 5.38 IP/start, so regression to six innings clears 14.5 outs.
  10. Under 8.5
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model cash probability ~64%; fair total 7.5 versus 8.5 at FanDuel −128.
    • Yamamoto: 2.94 xERA, .266 xwOBA allowed, 21 quality starts in 27; recent L5 ERA 2.14.
    • San Diego owns a .3211 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Yamamoto's recent workload averages 6.73 innings per start.
    • The Dodgers' confirmed lineup is intact and potent; its LHP split is a .3342 xwOBA.
  11. Full-game total under 8.5 runs
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 7.95 runs; Poisson under 8.5 probability is 59.9%, fair model price approximately −150.
    • LAD versus LHP: .424 SLG and .334 xwOBA; SD versus RHP: .3945 SLG and .3211 xwOBA.
    • Yamamoto/Ray xERAs are 2.94/4.79; six-mph wind out is below the 12-mph fly-ball multiplier gate.
    • Dodgers used 8.0 bullpen innings and 138 pitches over three days; late-inning run variance is elevated.
  12. Game first-inning runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ray: 4.67 BB/9, 8% K-BB, 4.79 xERA, and 8.78 ERA over his last three starts.
    • Dodgers' confirmed 1-4 face Ray with .334 team xwOBA vs LHP; Betts and Ohtani are .363/.378 individually.
    • Clear 75°F weather with 6-mph wind out to center and a 110 HR park factor support early damage.
    • Yamamoto is the strong counter: 2.51 ERA, .266 xwOBA allowed, and 20.1% K-BB this season.
  13. San Diego Padres +1.5 run line
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Padres +1.5 wins on a Padres win or exactly one-run loss; it has no push outcome.
    • A Padres loss by two or more runs loses; the half-run contract does not create a refund.
  14. Game total under 8
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 8 wins 0, 7, pushes exactly 8, loses 9+; under 8.5 wins on 8.
    • This is venue self-reference, not independent sharp confirmation; the under 8.5 comparison price can itself be wrong.
  15. Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 6.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of his last 10 starts cleared 6.5 strikeouts, averaging 7.2.
    • 2026 K/9 is 8.95; model estimate is 64% versus FanDuel's 50.5% implied at −102.
    • Yamamoto is listed as the Dodgers starter and is marked Active in the live participant feed.
    • The recent strikeout surge can regress toward Yamamoto's full-season baseline.
  16. Robbie Ray over 14.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 22 of Ray's 29 2026 starts cleared 14.5 outs (75.9%); current −147 break-even is 59.5%, a +16.4-point gap.
    • Ray averages 16.14 outs and 92.3 pitches per start across 29 established starts.
    • He cleared the line in 7 of his last 10 starts, including 18 outs in his most recent outing.
    • Three of Ray's last 10 starts finished below this number, including a seven-out outing.
  17. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −225 on BetMGM

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent cash estimate: 72%; fair price about −257 versus BetMGM −225.
    • Robbie Ray carries a 4.79 xERA and .334 xwOBA allowed; his last-five ERA is 5.84 versus 3.75 season ERA.
    • Los Angeles ranks .334 xwOBA and .424 SLG versus left-handed pitching; all nine Dodgers starters were confirmed.
    • F5 price offers only a modest modeled edge; one early homer or sequencing swing can erase it.
  18. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Robbie Ray's 2026 xERA is 4.79 versus a 3.75 ERA; xFIP is 4.90.
    • Ray's recent ERA is 8.78 over his last three starts and 5.84 over his last five; CSW is 23.9%.
    • LAD vs left-handed pitching: .334 xwOBA, .424 SLG, and 20.1% strikeout rate; all nine starters are posted.
    • The most likely loss is a one-run Dodgers win: the run line does not cash despite the correct side.
  19. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • the posted 1-3s are Betts/Ohtani/Smith (.363/.378/.345 xwOBA vs LHP) and Tatis/Harris/Machado (.374/.313/.331 vs RHP).
    • Ray's first-inning profile is 23 H, 15 BB, 3 HR in 120 PA; Yamamoto's is 22 H, 10 BB, 4 HR in 109 PA.
    • Dodger Stadium carries a 110 HR factor with 6-mph wind out to center; the homer path remains live despite a 96 overall run factor.
    • Ray and Yamamoto's first-inning batting averages are only .219 and .222, with first-inning strikeout rates of 20% and 21.1%; either can post a clean frame.
  20. Game total under 6.5
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  21. Los Angeles Dodgers F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks

Questions

Who won Padres vs. Dodgers?

The Padres won 5-1 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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