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Updated

FinalPNC Park
Cardinals76-81
5-1
Pirates80-77
Score by period
Team123456789T
STL0032000005
PIT0100000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

St. Louis Cardinals first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings) 53¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Polymarket US anchors imply roughly 69% Pittsburgh win probability and a 64% under-7.5 live scoring environment.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-14 on this game · −33% return

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Selective Pressure +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Pittsburgh has a +31 run differential versus St. Louis at −25 through 157 games.
    • Starter edge favors Pittsburgh: Lake Bachar xERA 3.52 and xwOBA-against .290 versus Matthew Liberatore 5.02 and .341.
    • Bachar has only three days since his last start and averages 2.12 innings per start; role or workload could differ from the listing.
    Selective Pressure
    • Own matchup read: Pittsburgh starter Lake Bachar has a 3.56 ERA and 3.52 xERA versus Matthew Liberatore's 5.36 ERA and 5.02 xERA.
    • Pittsburgh's bullpen has used 4.0 innings and 59 pitches over three days; St. Louis has used 10.0 innings and 157 pitches.
    • The estimated edge is modest: roughly 58-59% by my read against a 57¢ entry cost.
    Fade the Arm
    • Liberatore owns a 5.02 xERA, .341 xwOBA allowed, and 7.03 ERA over his last five starts.
    • TTO decay, fourth-pass hitters show .401 xwOBA versus .327 the first time through; fourth-pass K rate is 17.9%.
    • Liberatore's last-three ERA is 4.91, so the five-start deterioration may be noisy rather than a continuing decline.
  2. Game total under 7.52 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsLoose Cohort MLB, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Loose Cohort MLB
    • Under moved 48.5¢ to 53.5¢ from opening, a favorable 5.0-point move but still below the ~6-point decay caution.
    • The 5.0-point favorable move leaves limited price-decay cushion, and cohort entry prices are unknown.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle has under 7.0 at +105 at 3:07 PM PDT; same direction, one run lower.
    • LEAN only: the 4.06x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantUp 86% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lake Bachar has a 3.56 ERA, 3.52 xERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.40 K/9 across the current season; Matthew Liberatore is at 5.36 ERA, 5.02 xERA and 1.48 WHIP.
    • Pittsburgh's last-30-day xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .3406; St. Louis is .3087 versus right-handed pitching.
    • Confirmed 5:10 PM CDT release: both starters, all nine batting orders and catchers, open roof, 65°F, 12-mph wind in from center, and no active game status change.
    • The edge is moderate, not dominant: p_conservative is only 3.70 points above the quoted contract cost and full-game variance remains substantial.
  4. St. Louis Cardinals first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors imply roughly 69% Pittsburgh win probability and a 64% under-7.5 live scoring environment.
    • The 2026 MLB empirical baseline is 8.96 runs with 42.8% under 7.5; this board is pricing a distinctly lower-scoring shape.
    • At 1-0 Pittsburgh, bottom 2 with two outs, St. Louis needs Pittsburgh to lead by at least two after five for this to lose.
    • A single Pittsburgh multi-run inning can erase the low-scoring cushion before the fifth.
  5. No 7th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors: Pittsburgh 56.5% moneyline and 7.5-run total; Pinnacle independently shows PIT −134 and total 7.
    • 2026 MLB empirical scoring: 2,357 games averaged 8.97 runs with 4.52-run SD; the right-skewed baseline was used rather than assuming Poisson.
    • A 7.5-run fitted environment implies roughly 0.83 runs per inning and about 0.50, 0.52 seventh-inning tie probability under a flat-rate split.
    • Full-game scoring does not uniquely determine seventh-inning timing; bullpen usage could make the inning materially quieter.
  6. Game first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh's Polymarket US moneyline is 56.5%; the same board's full-game anchor is under 7.5 at 54 cents.
    • The 2026 MLB sample checked (1,470 games) is right-skewed (9.05 mean, 8 median), so the fit uses the board's 7/8/9-run tail rather than a symmetric assumption.
    • A 7.5-run anchor implies a first-five environment below a flat five-ninths split because starters generally outperform later relievers; under 3.5 is the coherent direction.
    • The fitted distribution is anchored primarily to this venue's own moneyline and total, so self-reference remains material.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Pittsburgh Pirates over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh's confirmed opposing starter is left-handed Matthew Liberatore; his xwOBA allowed is .3394.
    • Liberatore's last-five-start WHIP is 1.90, while PNC Park carries a 110 run-scoring factor.
    • Pittsburgh has already scored once through two innings; three more runs are needed with seven innings remaining.
    • Pittsburgh's split versus left-handed pitching is only .3035 xwOBA, not an elite platoon signal.
  2. Total runs under 7.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle fair total is approximately 7.28 runs; Pirates' .303 xwOBA versus lefties adds a −0.50-run ledger, producing a 6.78-run model mean and 56.7% Under 7.5.
    • The −0.50 ledger is a single platoon proxy: Pittsburgh's .303 xwOBA versus LHP; St. Louis is .3127 versus RHP, with no compensating cluster or bullpen-fatigue adjustment.
  3. Alec Burleson RBIs YES 0.5
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full tier: Burleson is batting third, projected 4.3 PA, with 453 PA versus RHP: .3086 AVG, .4005 xwOBA, .5333 SLG.
    • His 111 RBI in 650 season PA supplies a 17.1% RBI/PA baseline; lineup-spot arithmetic, matchup quality, and 4.3 PA produce a 46% model YES probability.
    • PNC Park run factor is 110; Pittsburgh's home bullpen logged 10.0 IP and 157 pitches over three days, supporting late RBI opportunity.
    • Two runners ahead are not automatic opportunities; Wetherholt and Herrera carry only .3436 and .3134 xwOBA versus R.
  4. St. Louis Cardinals 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 7th-inning draw is priced at 0.67, leaving only 0.33 raw non-draw probability, versus full-game Over 7.5 at 0.47 and F5 Over 3.5 at 0.58.
    • Lake Bachar averages 2.12 innings and 37.6 pitches per start, putting Pittsburgh into a long bullpen game.
    • Pittsburgh relievers have 430 pitches and 19 appearances over seven days versus St. Louis at 295 and 13; the fatigue mechanism supports the Cardinals late.
    • Pittsburgh remains the full-game favorite at 0.56, and home offense can overwhelm the bullpen signal in one inning.
  5. Game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.3 runs, fair total line 8.0, over 7.5 win probability 57.9%, push probability 0% (model snapshot 5:10 PM CDT; first pitch 5:40 PM CDT).
    • Matthew Liberatore carries a 5.02 xERA and .341 xwOBA allowed against Pittsburgh's confirmed lineup.
    • St. Louis's lineup versus right-handed pitching has a .3127 xwOBA; Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson add .3424 and .3714 season xwOBA.
    • PNC Park is open with 65°F conditions and 12-mph wind in from center field, which can suppress carry.
  6. Matthew Liberatore 6+ strikeouts: NoFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent workload averages 74 pitches over three starts, projecting 4.6 IP; last four counts were 81, 72, 69, 107.
    • Season K/9 is 8.92, but L3 fell to 4.30; last five starts produced 2, 2, 3, 9, 7 Ks.
    • Confirmed 25.1% Pittsburgh lineup K-rate versus lefties helps, while Lake Bachar's 20/17/47/27-pitch recent workload failed the YES gate.
    • The Pirates' 25.1% lineup K-rate is favorable, so six strikeouts remains a realistic outcome.
  7. Game first-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liberatore: .341 xwOBA allowed and 5.02 xERA; first-inning BA .274 with 7 homers allowed in 30 games.
    • Confirmed Cardinals top four carry .331-.371 individual xwOBA; STL versus right-handers posts .313 team xwOBA.
    • PNC Park run factor is 110; John Bacon’s games average 10.33 runs, with 60% over nine runs.
    • Bachar is a meaningful NRFI counterweight: .290 xwOBA allowed, 9.4 K/9, and .158 first-inning BA in a small 11-start sample.
  8. St. Louis Cardinals +1 (pushes if Pittsburgh wins by exactly 1)
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cardinals +1.5 was 63.50¢ versus 54.34¢ for +1; push-adjusted fair +1 is approximately 56.34¢, a 2.48-point gap.
    • The fair-price calculation relies on ProphetX's adjacent +1.5 market as venue self-reference; no independent sharp reference was used.
  9. Konnor Griffin over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 70¢ on Polymarket US

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Konnor Griffin recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
    • His .3247 average versus left-handed pitching is well above his .2699 season average.
    • Confirmed batting first for Pittsburgh; the Polymarket contract names the exact 1+ hit outcome.
    • The 10-game sample is small, and one hitless game loses the contract.
  10. Matthew Liberatore 5+ pitching strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US No is 0.47; the five-rung Liberatore K ladder is fully quoted, non-placeholder, and monotone: 3+ .87, 4+ .72, 5+ .54, 7+ .25, 8+ .14.
    • Working distribution centers around 4.71, 4.93 Ks: 4.98 season IP/start at 8.92 K/9, versus 8.51 K/9 over his last five.
    • The latest three-start sample is thin, and a longer leash or unusually efficient innings can defeat the under.
  11. No runs in the 1st inning
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineups have Wetherholt/Herrera/Burleson first three for St. Louis and Griffin/Flores/Reynolds for Pittsburgh.
    • Liberatore is the counter-risk, but both starters' first-inning K rates are roughly 26% or higher.
    • The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it prices different innings, including tiring starters and bullpen frames; the first-frame model is lineup/starter-specific.
    • Liberatore has allowed a .2735 first-inning BA and 7 HR in 131 first-inning PA, a clear path to YES.
  12. Pittsburgh Pirates run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh leads the ProphetX moneyline (−128) and run-line flow; total flow also favors over 7.5.
    • Lake Bachar posts a 3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.40 K/9; Matthew Liberatore posts 5.36, 1.48 and 8.92.
    • Pinnacle has Pittsburgh moneyline −134. ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-23 1:11:34 PM PDT.
    • Pittsburgh's bullpen logged 10.0 innings and 157 pitches over three days; late relief variance can erase a multi-run edge.

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. Pirates?

The Cardinals won 5-1 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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