App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalCitizens Bank Park
Brewers98-59
4-1
Phillies87-70
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL1120000004
PHI0100000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Brewers to win −122

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Henderson leads Nola in xERA 2.74 to 4.12, FIP 3.30 to 4.79, WHIP 0.81 to 1.35, and K/9 10.32 to 9.04.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 17-15 on this game · +1% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win4 models agreeHigh conviction
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    4 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Rotation Watch +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Henderson leads Nola in xERA 2.74 to 4.12, FIP 3.30 to 4.79, WHIP 0.81 to 1.35, and K/9 10.32 to 9.04.
    • Against right-handed pitching, Milwaukee has the better 2026 xwOBA (.327 vs .318) and SLG (.410 vs .401).
    • Philadelphia has the bullpen-rest edge: 47 pitches and 3.33 innings over three days versus Milwaukee's 84 pitches and 6.0 innings.
    Rotation Watch
    • Henderson: 30.7% K, 4.6% BB, .257 xwOBA allowed; Nola: 23.7% K, 8.1% BB, .312 xwOBA.
    • Last five starts: Henderson posted 0.70 WHIP and 9.6 K/9; Nola posted 1.05 WHIP and 6.6 K/9.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen logged 179 pitches and 12.0 innings over three days versus Philadelphia's 98 pitches and 6.0 innings.
    Drift
    • Independent power rating: Milwaukee 58%; current Pinnacle devigged reference: 53.6%; gap +4.4 points.
    • Milwaukee owns a +200 run differential in 157 games (+1.27/game) versus Philadelphia's +31 (+0.20/game).
    • Philadelphia is at home, and its bullpen is much fresher: 6.0 innings/98 pitches over three days versus Milwaukee's 12.0/179.
    Fade the Arm
    • Aaron Nola’s two latest fastballs averaged 90.32, 90.67 mph versus his 91.12 season baseline.
    • TTO decay, Nola’s strikeout rate fell from 34.8% to 26.7% between his second and third trips through lineups.
    • Nola’s season xFIP is 3.88 and xERA 4.12, both better than his 4.49 ERA; the vulnerability signal is mixed.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to win (first 5 innings)2 models agree
    +74%Won

    Taken at −135 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    Why 2 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • 64% independent F5 estimate versus 57.4% implied at DraftKings −135; fair price approximately −178.
    • Henderson owns a 2.74 xERA and .257 xwOBA allowed versus Nola at 4.12 and .312.
    • Nola's last three starts were excellent: 1.33 ERA and .984 WHIP, so his current form can overwhelm the season gap.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • 59% independent F5 estimate, based on the starter and handedness matchup.
    • Nola: 4.12 xERA and .312 xwOBA allowed; Henderson: 2.74 xERA and .257 xwOBA allowed.
    • DraftKings −135 needs 57.4%; the sharp F5 screen devigs to 55.3%, so the model disagreement is modest and may be wrong.
  3. Logan Henderson over 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    2 modelsK’s, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • 30.7% season K rate; 31.2% over the last 10 starts and 29.4% over the last five.
    • Projected 22.1 batters faced with an adjusted 28% K rate gives approximately 6.2 expected strikeouts.
    • Philadelphia's right-handed lineup strikes out only 20.5% of the time, a meaningful matchup drag.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model probability 60% versus DraftKings implied 53.1%, clearing the 4-point value gate after matchup adjustment.
    • Henderson went over 5.5 strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 starts, totaling 69 strikeouts in those outings.
    • Philadelphia's opposing lineup K rate is just 20.5%, materially below Henderson's recent strikeout environment.
  4. Aaron Nola under 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Recent K/9 is down to 5.31 over his last 3 starts and 6.61 over his last 5.
    • Last five strikeout totals: 4, 3, 5, 4, 7, under 5.5 in four of five.
    • A deep outing beyond his 5.43-inning average could create enough opportunities to reach six.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Last five starts: 4, 3, 5, 4, 7 Ks, 4.6 average, 16.4% below the 5.5 line.
    • Nola stayed under 5.5 in 4 of those 5 starts; six of his last 10 were unders.
    • The last-10 sample still contains four overs; recent-form regression is possible.
  5. Philadelphia Phillies to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsLoose Cohort MLB, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Loose Cohort MLB
    • Loose-only, fails strict on the month-positive gate: MymanIvan's MLB month PNL was -$9,233; the other strict thresholds were met in this scored set.
    • Most likely loss: Logan Henderson or Aaron Nola variance lets Milwaukee score first and Philadelphia fails to convert the sharp-line value.
    Selective Pressure
    • Own read: Philadelphia about 50% versus a 46.5, 47% market price.
    • Aaron Nola's last-five profile: 1.72 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, materially better than his 4.49 season ERA.
    • Logan Henderson remains the stronger season-long starter: 2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 10.32 K/9.
  6. Milwaukee Brewers F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Henderson L5: 0.70 WHIP, 2.10 ERA, 30.0 IP; Nola L5: 1.05 WHIP, 1.72 ERA, 31.33 IP, Milwaukee has the stronger five-inning starter profile.
    • MIL vs RHP team xwOBA .3273 versus PHI .3181; top-three xwOBA is essentially even (.3456 MIL, .3466 PHI), avoiding a lineup drag.
    • Three-way model: Milwaukee 50%, Philadelphia 34.5%, draw 15.5%; PM US is 0.46 yes / 0.55 no, 1.01 sum, devigged 45.5%, gap 4.5p.
    • Philadelphia's top three include Schwarber and Harper; their combined power can erase the starter edge quickly.
Show all 25 picks
  1. First-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.5% Brewers moneyline anchor and 52¢ full-game over 7.5 imply a balanced, not extreme, scoring distribution.
    • 2026 empirical F5 sample: 5.11 mean and 50.5% reaching 5+ runs.
    • Adjacent F5 rungs quote over 3.5 at 52¢ and over 5.5 at 57¢; over 4.5 at 78¢ breaks monotonicity.
    • Two runs are already in; one big third-through-fifth inning can clear 4.5 quickly.
  2. Philadelphia Phillies +1.5: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 54.0¢ Brewers moneyline and 46.5¢ Phillies moneyline fit a near-even game, not a 41% two-run Brewers win rate.
    • 7.5-run total anchor (45.0¢ over, 55.5¢ under) implies a moderate scoring environment where one-run margins dominate.
    • The Brewers −1.5 contract is priced 41.0¢ YES / 59.5¢ NO; the Phillies +1.5 NO side is the board's largest coherent spread gap.
    • The anchor fit is venue self-reference; no independent team projection is used.
  3. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket moneyline implies Milwaukee near 54%; the total ladder centers near 7.5 runs.
    • 2026 finals are right-skewed: 9.20 mean, 9 median, and 41.4% reaching 10+ runs.
    • That anchored scoring environment implies roughly 50, 55% for a single-inning draw, not 70%.
    • Late bullpen state could suppress scoring and push the draw probability toward the venue quote.
  4. Philadelphia Phillies under 3.5 runs scored
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Logan Henderson is a confirmed right-hander; Philadelphia’s posted lineup has six left-handed bats against him.
    • Henderson: 2.74 season xERA and .257 xwOBA allowed; his last five starts show a 2.10 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over 30.0 innings.
    • Philadelphia’s last-30-day xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is .302 across 559 plate appearances; this is a specific starter/lineup projection, not a game-total substitution.
    • Six left-handed Phillies bats can still exploit a right-hander, and a .302 split is not a bottom-third offensive profile.
  5. Total runs under 6.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Platoon ledger is 0: PHI .3181 and MIL .3273 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; cluster and bullpen ledgers are also 0.
    • Seven or more runs loses; both posted top-five orders are intact and their team xwOBA versus righties is healthy.
  6. Aaron Nola under 6.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 5.2 strikeouts; Poisson-binomial model gives approximately 76% for 6 or fewer.
    • Milwaukee's confirmed nine-man right-handed-lineup K rate is 22.3% (2,006 strikeouts in 9,000 PA).
    • Nola's last five starts produced 23 Ks in 121 batters faced (19%), with a 6.61 K/9 rolling mark.
    • Nola's full-season 2026 strikeout rate remains stronger than the recent form, so a rebound can clear seven.
  7. Over total 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Logan Henderson and Aaron Nola; 17 and 31 current-season starts.
    • MIL 5.13 R/G plus PHI 4.48 R/G gives a 9.61 combined scoring baseline; power total is 7.3 runs.
    • Henderson's 2.74 xERA is the strongest run-prevention input and can suppress Philadelphia.
  8. Game total under 7.5 runs
    +71%Won

    Taken at −140 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 6.8 projected total runs, 6.8 fair total line, 60.7% Under 7.5 win probability, 0% push probability (5:10 PM CDT).
    • Logan Henderson owns a 2.74 xERA and .257 xwOBA allowed; his 2026 FIP is 3.30.
    • Both confirmed lineups are live; Philadelphia's and Milwaukee's versus-right-handed xwOBA are .318 and .327, respectively.
    • Aaron Nola's 4.12 xERA is vulnerable to Milwaukee's 5.13 team runs per game.
  9. Aaron Nola 6+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nola's L3/L5 K9 is 5.31/6.61; he averaged 4.6 Ks over his last five starts.
    • Nola rung board is 4+/5+/6+ YES at 80/66/48¢; 6+ NO is the only NO rung clearing the separation gate.
    • Henderson's 4+/5+/6+ YES board is 79/65/44¢ at Kalshi, but his severe TTO3 decay makes Nola's 6+ NO cleaner.
    • Nola averaged 6.1 Ks over his last 10 starts; a return toward his 9.04 season K9 beats six.
  10. Full-game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Citizens Bank Park carries a 106 run factor and 110/112 LHB-RHB HR factors.
    • Combined starter xERA is 6.86; both starters clear the workload gate at 94.8 and 93.8 average pitches over their last four starts.
    • A 16 mph wind in from right field and 68°F conditions suppress fly-ball carry; the wind-out multiplier is not activated.
  11. Game total under 7.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7.5 costs 56.14c versus ProphetX under 7 at 50.00c: only a 6.14-point step-up.
    • Exchange prices include venue friction and may not map one-for-one to raw historical probabilities.
  12. Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Phillies +1.5 wins on a one-run loss; adjacent Phillies +1 pushes instead of winning.
    • ProphetX prices Phillies +1.5 at 60.32c (−152) versus Phillies +1 at 53.49c (−115).
    • The half-point price may already incorporate matchup-specific margin risk better than the cross-rung comparison.
  13. Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits
    +56%Won

    Taken at −178 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 70% versus DraftKings implied 64%, clearing the 4-point value gate.
    • Bohm recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, including 14 hits in that span.
    • Confirmed Philadelphia lineup bats Bohm fifth; active participant status was verified on the live prop board.
    • The 10-game sample is the primary model input; current-season aggregate profile data was incomplete.
  14. Logan Henderson over 14.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
    +57%Won

    Taken at −174 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16 of Henderson's 17 2026 starts cleared 14.5 outs; all 10 most recent did.
    • His last five starts averaged 6.0 innings and roughly 95 pitches.
    • FanDuel −174 implies a 63.5% break-even rate; estimated true probability is 85%, a +21.5-point edge.
    • One of 17 starts ended after only 2.0 innings, so an early-hook tail remains real.
  15. Logan Henderson 6+ strikeouts: No
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue ladder implies K mass (0, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9+) ≈ .20/.15/.16/.16/.15/.15/.18; model is .26/.16/.16/.15/.10/.07/.10.
    • Four of Henderson's last five starts reached 6+ strikeouts; the recent form is more bullish than the innings-truncation model.
  16. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Aaron Nola's 2026 TTO xwOBA jumps from .2802 first time through to .3492 second and .3271 third.
    • Brewers vs right-handed pitching: .3273 xwOBA, .4099 SLG, and .2248 K rate clear the platoon gate.
    • Nola's 4.49 ERA exceeds his 4.12 xERA and 3.88 xFIP, while the TTO deterioration identifies the actionable weakness.
    • Nola's recent profile is strong: 1.33 ERA over his last three and 1.72 over his last five starts.
  17. First-inning runs over 0.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes are strong: Philadelphia’s average xwOBA is .347; Milwaukee’s is .346.
    • Nola has allowed 8 first-inning homers in 31 games, with only a 26.5% first-inning K rate.
    • Both starters are confirmed right-handed; team xWoba versus RHP is .327 for Milwaukee and .318 for Philadelphia.
    • 15 mph wind blowing in from center field suppresses carry, directly countering Nola’s first-inning home-run vulnerability.
  18. Milwaukee Brewers −1.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Henderson 2.51 ERA and 2.74 xERA versus Nola 4.49 ERA and 4.12 xERA.
    • LEAN only: 3.30x clears the 3x threshold but misses the 10x recommended threshold.
  19. Game total over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle quotes over 7 at −108 versus under 7 at −104, a small over lean.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen enters with 179 pitches over three days; Citizens Bank Park has a 106 run factor.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-23 1:11pm PT; exact 7 rung, not a cross-rung comparison.
    • Logan Henderson's 2.74 expected ERA and 10.32 K/9 can suppress Milwaukee's scoring.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Phillies?

The Brewers won 4-1 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.