Delaware vs. Middle TennesseeFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJohnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEL | 3 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 30 |
| MTSU | 5 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders spread −2 45¢
Why Resting Money likes it: REFERENCE only; ProphetX price is 45.25c (-110 American). Directional check: backing Middle Tennessee -2, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1227 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · −19% return
- Da'Wain Lofton over 41.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3 of 5 2026 appearances cleared 41.5 yards: 52, 142, and 64.
- Middle Tennessee allowed +0.1894 defensive EPA/play, 64th of 273; that is a top-23.4% favorable matchup.
- Lofton is listed Active at 12:01 PM PDT, and FanDuel priced him for this game.
- Lofton posted 14 yards last game, and Delaware's offense has averaged -0.0243 EPA/play this season.
- Delaware Blue Hens to win−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Delaware's five-game defense allowed -0.008 EPA/play versus Middle Tennessee's +0.208; points allowed 25.6 versus 28.0.
- Offensive EPA is nearly even (-0.024 Delaware, -0.021 Middle Tennessee), so the rating is driven by the defensive gap rather than an inflated offense projection.
- Five-game samples are noisy; Middle Tennessee's 55-0 Kansas loss may distort its defensive EPA.
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders spread −2+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- REFERENCE only; ProphetX price is 45.25c (-110 American). Directional check: backing Middle Tennessee -2, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +7+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Middle Tennessee +7 pushes, rather than loses, if Delaware wins by exactly 7; +7.5 wins that result.
- away teams won by exactly 7 in 375 of 10,371 games, an empirical 3.616% push mass for this contract.
- ProphetX quotes Middle Tennessee +7 at 72.22¢ (-260) versus +7.5 at 76.74¢ (-330), a 70-American-point payout gap.
- A push returns stake, not a win; Middle Tennessee loses if Delaware wins by 8 or more.
- Under 47.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Long WeekDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both offenses average negative EPA/play over five games: Delaware -0.024, Middle Tennessee -0.021.
- Delaware's defense allows -0.008 EPA/play; Middle Tennessee allows +0.195, but both attacks have recently stalled.
- Combined season scoring averages total 44.2 points, 3.3 below the posted 47.5.
- The averages mix uneven opponents; Middle Tennessee's defensive weakness can create cheap Delaware points.
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, Middle Tennessee averaged 32.5 home points and 17.0 home points allowed in two 2026 home games.
- ProphetX's related game spread also favors Middle Tennessee (-1 at +113); this is positioning evidence, not a truth source.
- Most likely loss: Delaware's offense overcomes the poor away split and wins a one-score game.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices under 43.5 at -205 (67.21¢) but under 44.5 at +130 (43.48¢), an impossible ladder reversal.
- the teams average only 21.4 and 20.8 points, while Delaware's season defensive EPA allowed is -0.008 per play.
- Recent low-output results support the direction: MTSU scored 13 and 0 in two of its last three; Delaware scored 14 and 3 in two of its last three.
- Most likely loss: a return to the recent shootout profile produces 45 or more points; MTSU's last five totals were 55, 36, 47, 54, and 52.
Questions
Who won Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee?
The Middle Tennessee won 33–30 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.