Florida International vs. Jacksonville StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAmFirst Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 24 |
| JXST | 14 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonJacksonville State Gamecocks to win 58¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-12 on this game · +833% return
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
5 modelsCFB Heater, Saturday Board Pairs +3Why 5 models like it
CFB Heater- FIU owns the better recent defensive EPA profile, creating upset and price-compression risk.
Saturday Board Pairs- 2026 current sample (5 FIU, 6 JSU): JSU +0.2402 offensive EPA/play versus FIU -0.0387.
- Success rate is 52.3% for JSU versus FIU 45.5%; explosive rate is 13.3% versus 13.1%.
- Most likely loss: FIU's strong -0.1568 defensive EPA allowed suppresses JSU's offense and FIU wins outright.
Resting Money- Backing Jacksonville State, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count is tied 3-3, leaving no third-measure confirmation.
ProphetX Pairs- 62% fair estimate from 2026 team rates, Jacksonville State has +0.241 offensive EPA/play and 52.3% success versus FIU at -0.039 and 45.5%.
- Pinnacle was -138, useful context only; the claim is driven by the current-season EPA/success differential and Jacksonville State home status.
- FIU's defense has allowed -0.151 EPA/play, while Jacksonville State's defense has allowed +0.156, creating a real matchup path to an FIU upset.
- Under 44.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current efficiency and pace inputs produce about 21.0 adjusted combined possessions and 42.1 projected points; FIU's current defensive EPA allowed is -0.157 and its points per drive is 1.56.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State converts its 2.52 current points per drive while both confirmed quarterbacks create enough explosive plays to reach 45+.
- Under 43.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - 2-leg parlay+18900%Won
Taken at +18900
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's exact two-leg quote is +190, with the top offer supporting up to $267; both legs are independently playable.
- Carolina is missing Jordan Staal and Seth Jarvis; Washington won the teams' October 2 meeting 5-2.
- Game under 43.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FIU's defense allows 12.2 points/game and -0.151 EPA/play; Jacksonville State's defense allows 22.5 points/game and +0.156 EPA/play.
- FIU's offense is -0.039 EPA/play with a 45.5% success rate, limiting the weaker offense in this matchup.
- Both teams last played October 7, providing six days of rest; no short-week fatigue boost is expected.
- Jacksonville State's offense averages 27.3 points and owns a strong +0.241 EPA/play, so explosive drives can break the under.
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at +200 on FanDuel
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 40% independent fair probability; fair odds approximately +150.
- Jacksonville State's recent offense EPA/play is +0.2785 versus FIU's −0.0387; success rate is 54.2% versus 45.5%.
- Jacksonville State is 4-1 in its last five with a +11.0 scoring margin, while FIU is 3-2 with a +6.6 margin; the home side also owns an 83.3 team grade.
- The -9.5 threshold is materially above the main market spread near Jacksonville State -3.
Show all 20 picks
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks −30%Push
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent context: FIU allows -0.0507 defensive EPA/play; JSU allows +0.1556, but the JSU offensive edge is materially larger.
- QB gate, last boxes: JJ Kohl had 21 attempts and Caden Creel 44; Oct. 13 coverage identifies both, with no designation on file.
- Most likely loss: FIU's -0.0507 defensive EPA allowed suppresses JSU enough for a one-score FIU cover.
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Own first-half winner estimate is 61%, versus a 52.3% Kalshi three-way devigged substitute reference.
- Jacksonville State averaged +0.278 offensive EPA/play and 54.2% success over its last five.
- FIU averaged -0.039 offensive EPA/play and 45.5% success; the matchup favors Jacksonville State's opening script.
- No independent sportsbook 1H winner line exists; the 52.3% reference is Kalshi's own three-way market.
- Total points over 45.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Florida International Panthers total under 46−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The ProphetX under ladder moves only 56.52¢ at 46 to 57.26¢ at 46.5, then jumps to 60.63¢ at 47; the rung pricing is not flat around the key.
- Pinnacle's sharp reference total is 44.5, and Jacksonville State's 2026 PFF defense grade is 80.8; expected QBs JJ Kohl and Caden Creel are named in the fresh preview and lead their latest box-score passing rows.
- Jacksonville State's offense is excellent at +0.241 EPA/play and 13.10 seconds per play; tempo and explosive plays can clear 46.
- Florida International Panthers spread +30%Push
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle and DraftKings both anchor the main spread at Jacksonville State -3; the exchange's +3 rung is the key-number value point.
- FIU is 3-2 with 12.2 points allowed per game; a close-game projection makes the full three points valuable.
- Jacksonville State has the stronger 2026 offense: +0.241 EPA/play and 27.3 points per game versus FIU's -0.039 and 18.8.
- Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jacksonville State averages +0.241 EPA/play and .523 success, but faced opponents allowing +0.241 defensive EPA/play; adjustment trims scoring.
- FIU defense allows 12.2 points per game with -0.151 defensive EPA/play allowed across five current-season games.
- Expected starters are Caden Creel and JJ Kohl; no material absence reported, and Jacksonville forecasts clear, calm conditions.
- Jacksonville State's offense averages .133 explosive rate, and Creel's dual-threat ability can create quick touchdowns.
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks first-half spread over 2.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE / PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle full-game Jacksonville State -3.
- 3,441-game 2023-26 regular-season sample: full-game margin SD 15.425; half-possession SD is 10.91, not 7.71.
- Projected first-half mean is approximately Jacksonville State +1.4; DERIVED REFERENCE at 2.5 gives 54.0% NO.
- College margin 3 is the highest pooled mass, 324 of 3,441 games; this rung straddles a real computed key point.
- Over 23.5 first-half total points+6%Won
Taken at 94¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; current score is 21 at 1:48 Q1 after five drives and 27 offensive plays.
- Prior usable 2026 averages: Jax State 1.88 PPD, FIU 1.70; baseline 1.79 PPD.
- Current combined PROE .155 versus .083 season baseline and explosive rate .222 versus .123 imply an 83.5% raw lift; applying a conservative 25% pass-through gives 2.16 PPD.
- Only 27 live plays and five drives: four early scores make the observed scoring rate noisy.
- Over 20.5 first-half total points+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 drive ledger averages 5.40 FIU and 5.17 Jacksonville State first-half drives, with 36.4 and 29.0 plays.
- Pinnacle full-game total is 44.5; the 24.0 projection is above a flat 22.25 first-half split.
- No independent first-half sharp total was posted; this is a derived same-rung reference and therefore LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
- Florida International Panthers spread +2−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FIU owns a +6.6 average scoring margin through five games, compared with Jacksonville State's +4.8 through six.
- FIU's defense has allowed 12.2 points per game and -0.151 defensive EPA/play; Jacksonville State's offense is stronger, but the matchup is not a blowout profile.
- Pinnacle's main number is FIU +3 at -113; ProphetX gives only +2 but pays +118, creating a plus-money price on a competitive spread.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State's +0.240 offensive EPA/play and 52.3% success rate create enough explosive plays for a 3+ point win.
- Game total under 44−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- a simple offense-defense cross-average from 2026 results projects approximately 40.4 points.
- Jacksonville State averages 27.3 scored and 22.5 allowed; FIU averages 18.8 scored and 12.2 allowed through the current schedule.
- The nearby sharp board is under 43.5, but the half-point differs, so it is not treated as same-line confirmation.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State creates short fields or explosive plays and the game reaches 45 points.
- Total Points under 43.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX’s 46-point game-total rung contrasts with its 21.5 and 20.5 team-total anchors, which sum to 42.
- FIU’s defense allows -0.1511 EPA/play over five games; Jacksonville State is explosive, but the matchup still needs efficient finishing to clear 44.
- QB gate cleared: JJ Kohl led FIU with 21 latest-game attempts and Caden Creel led Jacksonville State with 44; current pregame coverage names both quarterbacks.
- Jacksonville State’s recent offense is strong at 0.279 EPA/play and 2.901 points per drive, so FIU’s defensive edge may not fully travel.
- Total Points under 43−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Four FBS games per side clear the coverage gate; FIU's offense is 45.8% successful with 13.1% explosiveness, versus Jacksonville State's 54.2% and 14.6%.
- FIU's defense allows -0.151 EPA/play, while its recent five-game scoring average is 18.8 points; the stronger FIU defensive profile limits the shootout path.
- The 2026 possession feed is noisy rather than demonstrably fast: FIU averages 22.16 seconds/play in the preview, and Jacksonville State's rows contain major pace outliers.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville State's 54.2% success rate and weak FIU opponent-adjusted scoring environment create enough explosive drives to reach 44-plus.
Questions
Who won Florida International vs. Jacksonville State?
The Jacksonville State won 27–24 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.