Get app

Georgia Southern vs. Old DominionFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalS.B. Ballard Stadium
Georgia Southern2–4
23–15Final
Old Dominion2–4
Score by period
Team1234T
GASO797223
ODU700815

Top model pick, graded

Won

Georgia Southern Eagles spread −3 51¢

Why Drift likes it: Power model 54.0% on Georgia Southern -3; six-game EPA/play is +0.153 offense versus Old Dominion -0.095.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 18-4 on this game · +58% return

  1. Georgia Southern Eagles spread −33 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, ProphetX CFB Lines +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Power model 54.0% on Georgia Southern -3; six-game EPA/play is +0.153 offense versus Old Dominion -0.095.
    • Georgia Southern leads current success rate 47.2% to 37.8% and explosive rate 13.1% to 8.8%.
    • Most likely loss: Old Dominion's home defense keeps this a one-score game and Georgia Southern fails to cover -3.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Georgia Southern: matchup EPA blend is about +0.093 per play, with current points per drive 2.25 versus Old Dominion's 1.15; 72.2 versus 67.5 average plays supports the convergence.
    • Most likely loss: Old Dominion's home field and Georgia Southern's red-zone or turnover variance keep the margin below three; exactly three pushes.
    Rnj
    • Fair margin: Georgia Southern -6.0, a 3.0-point edge versus the executable -3.
    • Across five 2026 FBS games, Georgia Southern leads ODU in offensive EPA/play (+0.150 vs -0.135), success rate (46.5% vs 35.2%), and explosive rate (11.8% vs 7.8%).
    • ODU is at home and its 2026 PFF defense grade is 90.8, versus 77.3 for Georgia Southern.
  2. Georgia Southern Eagles to win2 models agree
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    2 modelsD1 Winner, Brewing CFB Moneylines
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Six-game per-play PPA: Georgia Southern offense +0.136 versus Old Dominion offense -0.140.
    • Georgia Southern’s offense has a .429 success rate; Old Dominion’s offense is at .307.
    • Old Dominion’s defense is the counter: -0.089 defensive PPA allowed and 18.7% defensive havoc rate over six games.
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • Three-model historical consensus selects Georgia Southern: FPI -5.243 versus Old Dominion -13.345; SP -4.6 versus -9.9; SRS -2.5 versus -16.2.
    • The same consensus-and-price filter produced 216 games from 2024-2026, 156 wins and +45.91 units; each season was positive: +13.60, +22.25, +10.07.
    • Georgia Southern's defense profile is weaker than Old Dominion's: defensive PPA allowed is +0.087 versus -0.049.
  3. Georgia Southern Eagles spread −3.52 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    2 modelsLong Week, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Long Week
    • Georgia Southern owns a +0.153 offensive EPA/play versus Old Dominion's -0.096.
    • The Eagles lead 24.7 to 18.2 in season scoring and 0.472 to 0.375 in success rate.
    • ODU has the home-field edge and faced a slightly tougher opponent-offense sample.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, 2026 season: Georgia Southern posts +0.153 offensive EPA/play and 47.2% success versus ODU at -0.095 and 37.8%.
    • Georgia Southern averages 24.7 points per game; Old Dominion averages 18.2, a 6.5-point scoring gap before home field.
    • Old Dominion is home and just held App State to 3 points; that defense can erase the margin.
  4. River Helms over 3.5 receptions
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on BetOnline

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yards per target moved 4.17 → 17.80 → 6.60 while target share stayed role-stable; the latest yardage cratered 63% from 89 to 33 on five targets.
    • PFF route rates were 82.9%, 72.4%, and 82.9%; Georgia Southern averaged 36.7 pass attempts with positive PROE in all three games.
    • Most likely loss: Old Dominion controls the game, Georgia Southern loses possessions, and Helms finishes with three or fewer receptions.
  5. Georgia Southern Eagles NO over 2.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Georgia Southern -3 at -111; scaled mean supports a narrow first-half Georgia Southern edge.
    • Six-game scoring blend gives Georgia Southern +2.3 full-game after home adjustment, or +1.15 first-half mean.
    • College margin 3 is a computed key mass: 413 of 4,299 games (9.6%); the 2.5 rung sits directly beside it.
  6. Game total under 46
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Georgia Southern averages 24.7 points and Old Dominion 18.2, a 42.8-point combined baseline before matchup adjustment.
    • Old Dominion's 2026 PFF card is 51.4 offense with 90.8 defense; the strong defense and weak offense support a lower-scoring script.
    • Pinnacle's captured total is 45.5, while the ProphetX 46 rung supplies the half-point cushion.
    • Georgia Southern's defense allows +0.0828 EPA/play and 24.3 points per game, so Old Dominion can contribute enough for a backdoor over.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Game total under 45.5
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); projected total 41.5 versus 45.5, an 8.8% projection edge.
    • Old Dominion averages 18.2 points and -0.095 offensive EPA/play across six 2026 games.
    • Old Dominion's 90.8 defensive grade and Georgia Southern's 0.378 recent opponent-style scoring environment support a slower, lower-efficiency game.
    • Georgia Southern allows 24.3 points per game and +0.083 defensive EPA allowed/play, leaving a path for Old Dominion to contribute.
  2. Georgia Southern Eagles 1st-half winner
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game offense: +0.150 EPA/play, 46.5% success rate, and 2.22 points/drive.
    • Old Dominion: -0.135 EPA/play, 35.2% success, and 0.87 points/drive over the same span.
    • Georgia Southern's +20.0% PROE supports a more aggressive opening script than ODU's +4.7%.
    • Five games is a thin sample, and the recent pace inputs contain extreme values.
  3. Georgia Southern Eagles −3
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN pregame model: Georgia Southern win probability 67.3%, projected margin 6.15 points.
    • Last six: Georgia Southern +0.153 EPA/play, 47.2% success, 2.25 points/drive; Old Dominion -0.095, 37.8%, 1.15.
    • FPI favors Georgia Southern by 8.1 points: -5.24 versus Old Dominion -13.35.
    • Old Dominion's defense grades 90.8 overall with 90.7 coverage, a major matchup counterweight.
  4. Old Dominion +7.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Old Dominion +7.5 wins on a seven-point loss; adjacent +7 only pushes on that exact margin.
    • ProphetX charges 66.67c for +7.5 versus 66.44c for +7: only a 0.23c premium for the push-to-win upgrade.
  5. Game total under 44
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Old Dominion posts -0.0954 offensive EPA/play, 37.8% success and 1.154 points per drive across six 2026 games.
    • ODU’s latest PFF defense grades 90.8 overall and 90.7 coverage; the low-efficiency offense supports a compressed scoring projection.
    • Most likely loss: 45 or more points; Georgia Southern’s offense has +0.1527 EPA/play and a 13.1% explosive-play rate.
  6. Game total under 47
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game total 47 versus team-total sum 46.0 (21.5 + 24.5).
    • 2026 scoring averages combine for 42.8 points across six games per team.
    • Old Dominion averages 18.2 points, 37.8% success, and 8.8% explosives; its offense is the scoring-rate constraint.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Southern's 19.7% PROE and 13.1% explosiveness create enough chunk plays for 25-plus points.
  7. Georgia Southern Eagles −3.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 profile: Georgia Southern posts +0.1498 offensive EPA/play, 46.5% success and 11.8% explosiveness versus ODU at -0.1351, 35.2% and 7.8%.
    • Georgia Southern's 23.24-second FBS pace and +0.2002 PROE indicate more reliable offensive production than ODU's 16.55-second, +0.0474 PROE profile.
    • Pinnacle's reference spread was Georgia Southern -3 at -111; reference only, while ProphetX offers -3.5 at +113. Quarter-Kelly on the 54.5% model fair is 3.6% before the brief's 0.5% bankroll cap.
    • ODU is home, and Georgia Southern's FBS defense allowed +0.1516 EPA/play, leaving a path for the Monarchs to win outright.
  8. Old Dominion Monarchs under 23.5 team points
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA delta -0.2867/play: ODU offense -0.1351 minus Georgia Southern defensive allowance +0.1516 across five FBS games each.
    • ODU quarterback Quinn Henicle is questionable; no confirmed replacement or start, so I cap this at 0.5u.
  9. Max Johnson over 237.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 of 6 2026 games cleared 237.5; season average is 262.0 yards.
    • Georgia Southern averages 38.7 pass attempts and a 60.1% pass rate through six games.
    • Old Dominion has allowed 165 points in six games; its recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.060.
    • Only six games inform the hit-rate estimate; the lone miss was 187 yards.
  10. Old Dominion Monarchs +2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 versus 3; the core two-measure pairing qualifies, but levels do not add corroboration. Raw stakes are substantial.
    • The book-level measure is tied, so only two of three measures support the read; confidence is limited.
  11. Under 45.5 total points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 45.5 wins at exactly 45; adjacent under 45 pushes at exactly 45, so the half-point converts a refund into a win.
    • The small price gap leaves limited room for market noise, repricing, or a non-representative scoring environment.
  12. Game total under 44.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, blended season and recent-three scoring averages center near 42 points, below 44.5.
    • Old Dominion averages 18.2 points and -0.095 offensive EPA/play across six 2026 games.
    • Recent three-game scoring: Old Dominion 13.3 points per game; Georgia Southern 27.7, for a 41.0 combined average.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Southern's recent offensive explosiveness converts this into a 28-20-or-higher game.

Questions

Who won Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion?

The Georgia Southern won 23–15 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.