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East Carolina vs. UABFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalProtective Stadium
East Carolina3–2
17–30Final
UAB3–3
Score by period
Team12345T
ECU7703017
UAB03661530

Top model pick, graded

Won

East Carolina Pirates under 47.5 total 45¢

Heater Two-HourDown 9% this season · 145 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-7 on this game · +35% return

  1. East Carolina Pirates to winFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −194 on FanDuel

    2 modelsD1 Winner, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Efficiency: ECU recent EPA allowed -0.0134/play versus UAB +0.0537; FPI ratings favor ECU by 10.8 points.
    • QB/injury: Mitch Griffis and Ryder Burton are confirmed starters; UAB center Adam Lepkowski is questionable.
    • UAB has home field and the better recent success rate, 47.5% versus ECU's 42.7%.
    CFB HunterV2
    • FPI rates ECU -3.848 versus UAB -14.642, a 10.794-point opponent-adjusted rating gap; rankings are 84 versus 123.
    • ECU's 2026 PFF card leads overall 81.9-76.8 and defense 91.0-73.0; Emory Williams and Ryder Burton are both verified starters.
    • UAB averages 2.088 points per drive versus ECU's 1.648, so ECU's defensive edge may not fully translate to margin.
  2. East Carolina Pirates NO over 2.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • [PROJECTION] 2026 scoring averages imply ECU +2.9 full-game margin; halving the mean gives approximately +1.5 first-half.
    • [DERIVED REFERENCE] Signed 2024-26 team-game margin SD is 25.03; sqrt-half scaling gives 17.70, not a naively halved SD.
    • [PROJECTION] N(1.5, 17.70) makes ECU failing to clear 2.5 approximately 52.3%; raw NO price is 45c.
    • The 3-point margin is the largest college mass: 227 positive and 227 negative observations in 5,122 signed team-games; smooth-normal precision is limited.
  3. East Carolina Pirates under 47.5 total
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  4. Ryder Burton under 163.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of 6 2026 appearances stayed below 163.5 yards: 115, 144, 139, and 131.
    • East Carolina has allowed only one passing touchdown and recorded five interceptions this season.
    • Burton is the identified UAB quarterback for this matchup and has started each current-season game.
    • Burton exceeded this line twice, including 219 yards in Week 1 and 174 against Navy.
  5. Emory Williams under 198.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3 of 4 2026 appearances stayed below 198.5 yards: 23, 22, 341, 143.
    • UAB ranks second nationally in pass defense at 126.0 yards allowed per game.
    • Williams is slated for his third straight start; his latest line was 19-of-31 for 143 yards.
    • Targets, play-calling, and protection are not fully observable before kickoff.
  6. Game total under 47.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample: ECU 5 games at -0.004 EPA/play and 42.7% success; UAB 6 games at -0.023 and 47.5%.
    • ECU allows -0.013 defensive EPA/play; UAB allows +0.054, with PFF defense grades 91.0 versus 73.0.
    • Pace/PROE: ECU averages 17.74 seconds/play and +10.2% PROE; UAB averages 23.90 seconds/play and approximately neutral PROE.
    • Most likely loss: UAB's 2.09 points per drive and 47.5% success rate create efficient scoring possessions.
Show all 18 picks
  1. East Carolina Pirates spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ECU averages -0.004 EPA/play, 42.7% success, 10.8% explosive plays; UAB averages -0.023, 47.5%, 9.5% (5 vs 6 games).
    • ECU’s defense allows -0.013 EPA/play versus UAB’s +0.054; PFF defense grades are 91.0 versus 73.0.
    • ProphetX’s ECU moneyline is -188 (65.3% implied) while ECU -6 is only 47.9% implied.
    • UAB’s 47.5% success rate exceeds ECU’s 42.7%, and home-field advantage can keep this within one score.
  2. under 47.5 total points
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing under 47.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The live score is already East Carolina 7, UAB 0 in Q1; another explosive drive or defensive score can break the under quickly.
  3. UAB Blazers +2.5
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the signal qualifies on two of three measures; the thin-side stake is thousands, not a tiny stale quote.
    • Directional check: backing UAB +2.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the only reference; no independent sharp-book or projection edge is being claimed.
  4. UAB +7.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UAB +7.5 wins at a 7-point loss; UAB +7 pushes at exactly 7.
    • No directional projection is claimed; UAB +7.5 still loses if UAB loses by 8 or more.
  5. UAB Blazers spread +7
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB gate passed: Emory Williams and Ryder Burton led their teams’ latest pass-attempt rows; current web checks support their roles.
    • Most likely loss: ECU wins by 8 or more, with the key 7 failing to protect UAB.
  6. Game total under 49.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring sample: East Carolina averages 24.8 points over 5 games and UAB 22.2 over 6, a 47.0-point combined baseline.
    • East Carolina allows -0.0134 EPA/play; its 91.0 PFF defense and 90.1 coverage grade are the matchup's strongest unit.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Emory Williams led ECU's last game with 31 attempts and is reported for a third straight start; Ryder Burton led UAB's last two and UAB's official preview backed him.
    • Most likely loss: ECU's fast pace and 10.2% PROE create extra possessions while UAB's defense (+0.0537 EPA/play allowed) gives up efficient explosive scores.
  7. East Carolina Pirates spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.0-point spread variance: FanDuel has ECU -4.5 while DraftKings has ECU -5.5.
    • +0.1886 last-four matchup EPA/play differential favors ECU: +0.1280 versus UAB's offense-versus-defense figure of -0.0606.
    • ECU's last-four offense EPA/play is +0.0470; UAB's is -0.1415.
    • The four-game EPA sample is small and schedule-sensitive; one turnover swing can erase the edge.
  8. East Carolina Pirates under 27.5 team points
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA delta -0.0577/play: ECU offense -0.0040 minus UAB defensive allowance +0.0537 across five and six current-season FBS games.
    • ECU's explosive rate .1081 exceeds UAB opponents' .0880, creating a path to short scoring drives and a contradictory variance signal.
  9. Game over 23.5 first-half points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12.87 projected first-half drives: ECU 7.20 plus UAB 5.67, versus 23.87 full-game drives.
    • Emory Williams and Ryder Burton were confirmed as the respective starting quarterbacks in live pregame reporting.
    • Weather fields are unpublished; later gust or precipitation could reduce possessions.
  10. Game total under 48.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle shows 49.5 with the under priced -111; a lower 48.5 should not also be a plus-money under without compensation.
    • Current-season averages imply 47.0 combined points (ECU 24.8, UAB 22.2); combined defensive EPA also favors a below-market score.
    • Most likely loss: one or two explosive plays or short fields push a roughly 47-point projection above 48.5.
  11. UAB Blazers to win
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION edge: my recent EPA/play read gives UAB 39%; ProphetX implies 34.97¢ at +186.
    • UAB's last five offense averaged +0.102 EPA/play; ECU averaged roughly -0.004.
    • UAB is home; ECU's recent wins do not erase its weaker recent offensive efficiency.
    • ECU's last-five defense averaged -0.013 EPA/play allowed; UAB's was +0.126.
  12. East Carolina Pirates/UAB Blazers under 49 total points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • my 53.5% win estimate is supported by both offenses' negative FBS EPA rates: ECU -0.052, UAB -0.074.
    • UAB averaged 28.32 seconds per play across five FBS games; its slower pace supports fewer possessions.
    • Personnel confirmed: Emory Williams is slated for his third straight ECU start; UAB has no quarterback change with Ryder Burton.
    • ECU averaged 18.58 seconds per play and a 0.1029 explosive-play rate, creating a fast-game path over 49.

Questions

Who won East Carolina vs. UAB?

The UAB won 30–17 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.

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