Kennesaw State vs. Missouri StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRobert W. Plaster Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| MOST | 0 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKennesaw State under 52.5 total −110
Why Short Week likes it: Fair total 49.5, three points below the 52.5 market.
Short WeekDown 9% this season · 25 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-2 on this game · +49% return
- Kennesaw State under 52.5 total+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Short WeekDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 49.5, three points below the 52.5 market.
- Season scoring averages combine for 44.4 points: Kennesaw State 22.6, Missouri State 21.8.
- Springfield forecast calls for 80% precipitation, showers/thunderstorms, and 0.25, 0.5 inches possible.
- Missouri State’s defense allows 0.132 EPA per play, creating a path to Kennesaw State points.
- Missouri State Bears +2.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; the two core measures agree, while the third is neutral.
- Backing Missouri State +2.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; exact ProphetX price is 48.31¢, American +105.
- Venue self-reference is the entire signal; no independent sharp reference is used.
- Missouri State Bears +3 (wins if Kennesaw State wins by 0-2 or Missouri wins; pushes at Kennesaw State by 3; loses by 4+)+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri +3 wins on a Kennesaw win by 0-2 or any Missouri win, pushes at exactly 3, and loses by 4+.
- 196 of 4,547 completed 2021-25 FBS games had signed home margin -3: 4.311% exact push mass for this side.
- Missouri +3 is -114 versus +3.5 at -138; after the 4.311% push adjustment, the whole-number rung is materially cheaper.
- The 4.311% figure is a broad 2021-25 FBS base rate, not a matchup-specific projection.
- Javon Rogers over 2.5 receptions+93%Won
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Share rose from a 15.9% first-two-game baseline to 19.8%; yards per target fell 12.2 to 5.9 (-51%).
- 89.3% route rate, 18 targets, and 12 receptions across five 2026 games.
- Kennesaw averaged 68.2 offensive plays; Missouri State averaged 24.0 seconds per play and a 49.6% pass rate.
- Most likely loss: Rogers keeps his route role but converts only two of roughly five to six targets.
- Brayden Munroe under 58.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Active at 12:01 PM PDT with five 2026 appearances; his roster rotation is verified.
- Model probability 60.5% versus FanDuel -112's 52.8% implied price: +7.7 points of value.
- FanDuel confirms Munroe is priced for this specific game at the live 58.5-yard line.
- Munroe erupted for 156 yards last week, showing a wide outcome range.
- Jamari Harrold anytime touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +500 on DraftKings
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1 receiving TD in 3 current-season games; 6 catches total.
- Kennesaw State averages 1.926 points per drive; Missouri State has allowed 32.4 points per game.
- +500 implies a 16.7% break-even rate; fair probability estimated at 18%, about +456 fair odds.
- Only 2.0 receptions per game in a three-game sample; role is thin.
Show all 8 picks
- Kennesaw State Owls to win−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Own projection: Kennesaw State wins 60.5%, led by +0.083 offensive EPA/play versus Missouri State's -0.050.
- Kennesaw State's defensive EPA allowed is +0.076 versus Missouri State's +0.132; the lower figure supports the road favorite.
- The 1-4 records are similar, but Kennesaw State's 22.6-23.4 scoring profile is materially cleaner than Missouri State's 21.8-32.4.
- Most likely loss: Missouri State's home-field edge plus turnover or finishing variance produces a narrow upset.
- Kennesaw State Owls under 51 total points+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri State averages -0.0496 offensive EPA/play and 21.8 points; its quarterback was still unlisted on the game-day depth chart.
- Fresh local reporting calls for a rain-drenched game, adding a weather-driven efficiency drag to the projection.
- Most likely loss: a competent Missouri State quarterback plus one explosive Kennesaw drive pushes the total over 51.
Questions
Who won Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State?
The Missouri State won 24–21 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.