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Colorado State vs. Texas StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUFCU Stadium
Colorado State2–3
27–66Final
Texas State2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
CSU02112027
TXST212421066

Top model pick, graded

Won

Texas State Bobcats spread −14.5 −110

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Texas State leads Colorado State by 0.138 EPA/play on offense and 0.173 on defensive EPA allowed.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 15% return this season · 84 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-10 on this game · −4% return

  1. Game total over 69.53 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • five-game 2026 sample: CSU posts +0.303 EPA/play and 48.9% success; Texas State allows +0.115 defensive EPA/play.
    • Texas State’s offense is +0.214 EPA/play, 51.6% successful and 14.3% explosive against CSU’s +0.296 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State’s 83.4 PFF defense, including 82.9 coverage, suppresses CSU after the quarterback change.
    Tempo Board
    • 2026 current samples: Colorado State averages 37.4 points and Texas State 34.8, a 72.2-point combined baseline across five games each.
    • Texas State’s five-game averages are approximately 24.6 seconds/play, 14.3% explosive rate, and 51.7% success; CSU adds 13.3% explosiveness and 48.9% success.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State’s 83.4 PFF defense and 82.9 coverage grade suppress CSU, while a one-sided script removes late possessions.
    Long Way Home
    • Texas State's five-game offense averages 34.8 points and its home split is 46.0 points per game with 0.346 offensive EPA/play.
    • Colorado State's offense averages 37.4 points, while its defense allows 38.6 and has allowed 59 and 56 in its two most recent games.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State's home defense suppresses Colorado State and the game finishes 38-28 or lower.
  2. Texas State Bobcats spread −14.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Rung Reader
    Why 2 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Texas State leads Colorado State by 0.138 EPA/play on offense and 0.173 on defensive EPA allowed.
    • Texas State coverage grade is 82.9 versus Colorado State's 39.0, a major matchup advantage against an explosive opponent.
    • Texas State is only 2-3 and one-point variance in a two-score spread creates meaningful backdoor risk.
    Rung Reader
    • Pinnacle -15 de-vigs to 51.0% Texas State cover probability; moving to -14.5 crosses the 14 key, adding 3.5 points.
    • Texas State's five-game defensive EPA allowed averages 0.115/play versus Colorado State's 0.296.
    • Hauss Hejny is out of the start but late warmup news can still alter Colorado State's quarterback usage.
  3. Colorado State Rams spread +14.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelsLong Week, Rnj
    Why 2 models like it
    Long Week
    • Colorado State's offense posts +0.314 EPA/play and 37.4 points per game against a stronger opponent-offense sample (+0.176 EPA/play).
    • Texas State's offense is good (+0.218 EPA/play), but its defense allows +0.138 EPA/play; CSU has enough offense to threaten a large spread.
    • Colorado State's defense allows +0.302 EPA/play, creating real blowout risk against Texas State's explosive offense.
    Rnj
    • Our fair margin is Texas State by 11.5; the +14.5 dog spread offers a 3.0-point cushion.
    • ESPN's opponent-adjusted FPI matchup projects Texas State by 9.5, materially below the market's 14.5.
    • Texas State's latest three FBS games show a +2.3 average margin versus Colorado State's -20.7, a substantial recent-form warning.
  4. Colorado State Rams spread +13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Colorado State Rams to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent margin distribution prices the Rams' outright win at 18.5%; +560 implies +22.1% expected return.
    • Pinnacle's same-game moneyline is Texas State -662 / Colorado State +490; devigged Colorado State probability is 16.3%.
    • Load-bearing value: current Colorado State offense averages 0.303 EPA/play and 2.99 points/drive versus Texas State's 0.214 and 2.64; K'saan Farrar is confirmed to start after Hejny was ruled out.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State's defense, allowing 0.115 EPA/play this season versus Colorado State's 0.296, creates an early runaway.
  6. Texas State Bobcats NO over 6.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Texas State -15 scales to a 7.5-point first-half mean.
    • Five-game data: Texas State averages +1.6 margin; Colorado State averages -1.2; own blended first-half mean is 6.7.
    • Own 2022-26 FBS-margin sample: SD_full 22.46; sqrt-possession scaling gives SD_1H 15.88, not 11.23.
    • Only five 2026 games per team; the team means and blended mean are noisy.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Texas State Bobcats to winFavorite
    +18%Won

    Taken at 85¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both positions were opened today and agree on the same liquid full-game moneyline.
    • Mickoug64's 8-0 CFB sample is small; the apparent edge could be selection variance.
  2. Colorado State to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +455 on DraftKings

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado State's last-five offense averaged 0.3144 EPA/play, 0.5000 success rate, and 3.072 points per drive.
    • Texas State is 2-3 and has allowed 35, 31, 10, 31, and 59 points in its last five games.
    • Texas State owns the substantial team-grade edge, 85.4 overall to Colorado State's 70.8, and is a 14.5-point favorite.
  3. Game over 16.5 first-quarter points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas State opened its last three games with 14, 28, and 10 points.
    • Colorado State opened its last three with 7, 14, and 0 points; two exceeded this threshold alone.
    • Last-three offensive EPA/play: Texas State +0.379, Colorado State +0.233; both scripts remain explosive.
    • A first-quarter sample is extremely volatile; 17 points needs two touchdowns plus a field goal.
  4. Game over 37.5 first-half points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12.4 projected first-half drives from 74 median plays and 5.96 plays per drive.
    • Blended PPD is 2.82; five-game first-half sample produces 3.37 PPD, a 19.8% scripted-start uplift.
    • PROE averages +0.170 CSU and +0.003 TXST; explosive rates are 13.3% and 14.3%.
    • Five-game samples are thin; first-half totals ranged from 20 to 69 points.
  5. Texas State −16.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  6. Colorado State +14 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices CSU +14 at +111 versus adjacent CSU +14.5 at +100: 11-cent uplift while retaining the push option.
  7. Game over 41.5 first-half points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21 points are already posted at 2:30 Q1; seven completed drives consumed only 12:09.
    • Colorado State has zero points on three completed drives; its 25.38-second live pace can erase the projection.
  8. Colorado State Rams spread +17
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas State grades better (85.4 overall, 83.4 defense) but Colorado State's 2026 offense is +0.303 EPA/play versus Texas State's +0.214, supporting resistance to a clean blowout.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State wins by 18 or more, sending the ticket just past the key-number protection.
  9. Colorado State Rams +15
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Texas State is only +1.6 average margin versus Colorado State -1.2 through five games, far short of a 15-point matchup gap.
    • Colorado State has the stronger offense by EPA/play (0.303 vs 0.214) and scores 37.4 points per game; its defensive weakness creates volatility, not a reliable blowout profile.
    • Shared-opponent check: both played UTSA; Texas State lost by 5, Colorado State by 14, a nine-point gap that does not support Texas State -15 by itself.
    • Most likely loss: Texas State's home offense exploits Colorado State's defense and wins by 16 or more.
  10. Colorado State +14
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN's current pregame projection has Texas State by 9.528; ProphetX's main number is Texas State -14, a 4.472-point gap toward CSU +14.
    • CFB 2026 through five games: Colorado State leads Texas State in offensive EPA/play, 0.303 to 0.214; the underdog's offense supplies a counterweight to TXST's defensive edge.
    • Texas State's defense is materially better by the same data: 0.115 EPA/play allowed versus Colorado State's 0.296, and the home side is favored to win.

Questions

Who won Colorado State vs. Texas State?

The Texas State won 66–27 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.

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